Jessica Nelson:
This episode of EnergyCents is brought to you by S&P Global's financial and capital markets energy advisory group. Our team of experts provides the investment community with actionable insight and integrated thought leadership that identify the trends and trend makers of global energy markets. Solutions cover the full energy and natural resources sector from traditional fossil fuels to emerging clean tech ideas and supply chains, and are available via recurring reports, webinars, robust data sets and personal engagements with experts.

Hill Vaden:
[00:00:30] All right. Welcome back to EnergyCents, a podcast from S&P Global that focuses on topics that lie on the intersection of finance and energy industries. I'm Hill Vaden, as always with Breanne Doughertyty. Breanne, how are you?

Breanne Dougherty:
I'm good, Hill. How are you? It's our last podcast of 2020.

Hill Vaden:
It is our last podcast in 2020, which hopefully, I don't know if we're going to run it the last week of 2020 or the first week of 2021, which I guess is remaining to [00:01:00] be seen.

Breanne Dougherty:
Yeah, we'll have to take that offline. We'll talk to our guest today as to what she thinks we should do about that actually, because we have our producer, Jessica Nelson, on with us today, actually. So she's going to give us a little bit of behind the scene insight and she might have a stronger opinion than either of us actually [crosstalk 00:01:18] ... we should push it out next week or the first week of January.

Jessica Nelson:
Yes. Thanks for having me, guys. It'll be interesting to be in front of the microphone this time.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah.

Breanne Dougherty:
Just listening [00:01:30] to our nonsense and trying to make sure that the sound and everything turns out nicely for when we publish it.

Jessica Nelson:
I have learned a lot of interesting facts about you guys and what you like in your TV show selections and over the years. So it has been fun to listen to, to your fun facts.

Hill Vaden:
I heard from somebody today that they will forever picture me in meggings and slippers as a result [00:02:00] of the last part. I'm not sure that [inaudible 00:02:04] ... anybody should have.

Breanne Dougherty:
I think you should be sad about that, Hill, but that should be upsetting news. You know what we also heard, Jessica? Is that one of our listeners reached out and said that they were glad that they thought ahead because they turned our podcast on in the car and sure enough, their child was in the car and we would have spoiled Christmas with our elf on the shelf discussion, but they knew to fast forward through the first little bit because they were scared [00:02:30] what we might talk about because it was around the holiday season. So we almost spoiled the magic of the season for a child as well. So that's always good to here.

Jessica Nelson:
Oh my gosh. Dodged a bullet.

Hill Vaden:
Well, and maybe that's a good... So the topic, I guess where Breanne and I want it to kind of focus conversation today, what we've been kind of racking our brains for the past few days or a week or so to come up with an end of year podcast idea, and ended up just looking [00:03:00] at a year in review on the podcast and then really looking forward at 2021 on some of the topics that we're most curious about to bring back up next year or to learn more about next year after hearing some things this year and then thinking about... So I was concerned about the elf on the shelf conversation when we had it, and I looked at our demographic data and I saw that it was all 25 to 45, thinking, "Well, we're pretty safe."

[00:03:30] I think that was one of the more interesting learnings from us. So I guess our goals really at the beginning of the year, Jessica, were to obviously cover topics on the intersection of finance and energy. We wanted to raise the profiles of the experts within S&P Global and showcase their personalities and advertise what we find to be a very curious and interesting corporate culture. Our kind of target demographic has been [00:04:00] that professional person in the 25 to 45 age group. Is that what we're seeing on the demographics? Is that our listener?

Jessica Nelson:
Yeah. Let me preface this by saying that these podcast platforms are very good at maintaining privacy. So we can only get a little bit of information from each of them and then try to stitch this together into something meaningful from... My background's marketing in addition to [00:04:30] my duties here on the podcast. So looking at it from that perspective, yeah. This is a younger age group than we typically would associate with traditional oil and gas or energy, how we would always have thought about energy even the last 10 years. So we're able to get some of that information just on what's the age group? What else are they listening to? I think Hill was shocked when he saw that one too. And what does this say about energy as a whole? Where is it going? [00:05:00] I think probably as we get into the podcast, you'll talk a little bit more about those topics and where it's going, and is this kind of an indication as the industry as a whole?

Hill Vaden:
Yeah. So when we're looking at the information, we don't know, for example, if your name is Benjamin and you live in New York and you like listening to Drake, but we know in big buckets that you're within a larger geographic framework in a larger age group framework, and at least with [00:05:30] one of the platforms that we work with, what other podcasts that you've listened to. So it sounds like we've got a pretty broad geographic reach.

Jessica Nelson:
Yeah, over 25 countries, listeners in over 25 countries. So that's good. We know that this industry is global and where you guys have focused in some of the things you're talking about, it has implications and ripple effects across the globe. So very happy to see that and maybe a little surprised, right?

Hill Vaden:
Yeah.

Jessica Nelson:
... to see where we got listeners.

Breanne Dougherty:
Shocked by that stat. That was the one that I found really [00:06:00] interesting. I just wouldn't have expected. I'm, dare I say, flattered to hear that because I think it points to one of our big efforts as well, Hill, is that this year, we really wanted to make sure that we showed the diversity of the energy conversation, that sometimes I think people think that energy conversation is very specific to certain regions or very specific types of commodities, but I think we really tried to show the diversity and hopefully, that's why a statistic like that is showing up in the [00:06:30] data.

Jessica Nelson:
Well, and the COVID effect. Right? It feels like markets and things are changing so quickly. You guys are able to address a lot of those topics with people no matter where they're at here on the podcast.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah, and I think we tried to do... We challenged ourselves to feel pick a variety of experts from a variety of geographies on a variety of topics. When I was looking at the information today, if we look back over the prior 20 episodes, 10 out of 20 were North America focus. Obviously, Breanne and [00:07:00] I have a bit of a bias to think about North America because that's where we sit, but I think we did a pretty good job spreading that out. While there's been a focus historically on some upstream topics, only about four of 20 topics were upstream, that we did a lot more on the climate and sustainability topics.

Jessica Nelson:
Right, and those were some of your most popular podcasts, too, from a statistics perspective. Any of the China carbon neutral pledge that they had, that's one of your top topics. Hydrogen, [00:07:30] very popular podcast. Right? And your climate scenarios one familiar this year. Yeah, that was a two-parter, I think, but very interesting insights coming out of these that I think that's an important indicator that that's where the interest at.

Breanne Dougherty:
I just want to be clear. We didn't pay Jessica extra to say nice things today. These are complete objective views that she's presenting and this is data. This is what we live in. This is data and analytics for you. So [00:08:00] we're pretty happy that they're reflecting, I think, what our efforts were, which is always nice to see. It would have been disappointing to maybe see some different data come out, given what we were trying to accomplish. [crosstalk 00:08:12]

Jessica Nelson:
True. Well, I will say from a marketing perspective, a lot of podcasts fail, right? Most people don't make it past the first five to 10 episodes. A lot of people are like, "Oh yeah. Let's do it. It's the hot thing." Most people are now listening. COVID, maybe more people are listening at their homes and looking for other media, but a lot [00:08:30] of them don't make it as far as you did. So kudos to you.

Breanne Dougherty:
I think the credit [inaudible 00:08:35] ... our guests, right? We do have a really large, deep pool of guests to turn to. So I think that we do... A lot of our upfront time, for our listeners out there, is actually trying to figure out who the right guests are to bring on, who can speak to the topic, provide the expertise, but do it in a way that's also going to be really approachable for the listener as opposed to being something that is more difficult for a listener to listen to. So [00:09:00] that's a shout out to the depth and breadth of our S&P Global experts, for sure.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah. [inaudible 00:09:06] ... and I think we did have some close encounters with failure on more than one podcast. Sound cut off and there was at least one podcast where my wifi dropped in the middle of the podcast and I came back, and I wonder if people could tell that I had no idea what was talked about for 10 minutes in between. [crosstalk 00:09:27]

Breanne Dougherty:
Yeah. Hill disappeared. The thing that we did learn is that Microsoft [00:09:30] Teams continues recording even when the person who pressed record disappears. So that was a learning for us, which was great to know for future ref- For all users of Microsoft Teams out there, that's a little tidbit of information for you that don't worry. It keeps recording. [crosstalk 00:09:46]

Hill Vaden:
I think the other one was Breanne's universal sign of, "Oh my God. I can't come off. You're going to have to go without me on this." [crosstalk 00:09:55] So some sort of disruption came into her room.

Breanne Dougherty:
A plumber walked [00:10:00] into my apartment and I was putting on my mask because I didn't realize he was going to be arriving. So I'm putting on my mask because in COVID protocols, everybody's got to be masked. If somebody that comes in, I wanted to make sure the plumber felt safe and I was waving my arms frantically to Hill saying, "Don't expect me to say anything until further notice." So yeah, we've had some excitement. Then even today, actually, for those... Obviously, you guys can't see it, but in the midst of all this, I had to run and grab a crying child who is now sitting on my lap, [00:10:30] chewing on my pants. So there's always something going on in the background. The listener doesn't necessarily see all the antics. The one thing I think that was, we'll put this out there, unfortunately, it's going to be a bit of a tease to everybody, but there is actually one podcast that we did record, Jessica did edit and produce and get it all ready to go out, and then we scrapped it because we felt that maybe we said too much.

Hill Vaden:
It wasn't ready for prime time.

Breanne Dougherty:
It wasn't ready for prime time. That's a [00:11:00] good way of putting it, Hill. So that one... But the good thing is we actually got a deliverable out of it and making lemonade out of lemons. Hill, tell them what came out of that podcast actually, in the end.

Hill Vaden:
Well, that was a loose change. So the little sound bites. Because we couldn't go with the full podcast, we went with the sound bites. Jessica is the producer of all that, too. So Jessica continues to make us look good, even when we fail.

Breanne Dougherty:
That's right. Actually, I think that [00:11:30] loose change has been a good little byproduct because they're one minute snippets and sometimes some of them are our most interesting excerpts from the pockets that we do record and things sometimes that if the podcast runs a little long or something that don't necessarily make it in. So just to be clear, what is listened to is generally just one stream of consciousness from us. It's not that we cut and paste, but sometimes the podcast runs a little long, or in this case, it was a podcast that, that we didn't feel comfortable posting. So it's what gave us some loose change bits. Those are always [00:12:00] valuable as well. So I think that was something that was unexpected for us this year.

Jessica Nelson:
Yeah, and I'll add if you haven't caught our loose change bits, you can find those on our social media channels. So for any listeners that are not sure what that means, that's where you'll find this.

Hill Vaden:
There's our plug, our corporate plugs or our advertising plugs.

Breanne Dougherty:
Also sponsored by [crosstalk 00:12:24]

Hill Vaden:
[inaudible 00:12:26] All right. Well, so [00:12:30] I'm feeling a bit like a Kramer's coffee table book about coffee tables that converted into a coffee table as we talk about podcasts in a podcast too. The other thing that we wanted to discuss at the urging from some of our colleagues and former guests, what we're interested in 2021 in terms of the topics that we covered. Breanne and I, we were trading communications morning where we came up with our own lists of the top three things [00:13:00] that we were most curious about in 2021. We wouldn't show it to each other before we read them aloud as not to bias us and not surprisingly, there was a what? 75% overlap or so on the two of us?

Breanne Dougherty:
Yeah, really. They could all be put under three headings. So I think they fit in quite nicely, which either it's because we spend so much time together, Hill. That's one thing that's possible that could be telling us topics could be super interesting. [00:13:30] It also points the fact that we are, in fact, as nerdy as we sound because of what we were talking about this morning. I'm sure other people have better things to do, but yeah, no.

I think the takeaway though, and actually, Jessica really hit on it a little bit earlier, was that let's be honest, 2021, a big theme that we're going to be watching for is, "Well, what happens next?" 2020 was definitely a year of announcements with respect to net zero targets. We saw corporates, all the companies making them. We saw obviously, governments making [00:14:00] them. I think something that we're both really excited in 2021 and we're privileged that we're going to have a bunch of access to experts within S&P Global to continue to follow this is, so what's next 2021? Does it become the year of implementation or action on some of these targets because it's one thing to put out the targets, another thing to start putting in a game plan to achieve it.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah. No, I think there's a lot of enthusiasm and optimism [00:14:30] around a lot of these announcements and in the grand scheme of things, press releases are relatively easy. I think the action is that much harder and a 2050 target is 30 years away. I don't think all of the announcements are 2050, but the point being that a lot of the leaders making these announcements are not going to be around in 2050. So this is a whole corporate culture that I think going to see changing. Hopefully, that starts to convert from message to action in 2021. There's a lot of things. The other thing I think is part of that is [00:15:00] that these announcements have come from governments, from corporations, from individuals and obviously, 2021, we're particularly interested in the US with the new executive in Washington, which I think could have potential implications around hydrogen, which we've learned more recent podcasts that we've done.

Breanne Dougherty:
Yeah, because I think that one thing that we've made clear in the podcast and through a lot of the S&P Global research is that policies necessary from a hydrogen perspective to really accelerate how hydrogen [00:15:30] might be a part of the energy mix going forward, that it's a general view that policy is going to have to be a part of that. Policy is obviously, happening in Europe around hydrogen, but we just need to see there's a lot of enthusiasm. I think Jessica did say hydrogen was actually one of our more popular podcasts. We know that a webinar that we host on the FCM team was an oversubscribed webinar as well, that we had a couple of weeks with our expert, Catherine Robinson, around hydrogen. So I think it's a topic that is extremely hot right now and everybody's looking at it from an investment [00:16:00] standpoint and from a technological standpoint.

But the question is, does it start gaining real traction in 2021? Because right now, at least from a US perspective, it's very much talked about, but nobody's quite sure exactly how that's going to look. So I think all that is going to be very much at play in 2021. The other thing that we've talked a lot about actually, in the last few weeks, that I think is going to be interesting is it's all about perspective and relative. So 2020 is going to be an interesting year because everything compared to 2020, if you put 2020 as a baseline, it's going to be interesting [00:16:30] dynamics because of the disruption that happened within 2020. So naturally, is 2020 going to be a blip in certain data? But if you do everything relative to 2020, obviously, Hill and I are researchers at heart, so we always think of things as you're setting a different baseline.

So how these numbers and performance and different efforts are going to look in the near term, we'll have 2020 as your baseline, in some respects, it might be a lowering of your baseline, which makes improvement [00:17:00] easier to see or easier to show. But in other respects, from a green standpoint, 2020 was technically a greener year because emissions would've been down for various reasons. So 2021, from a perspective standpoint, might not look like there's progress being made because of this shifted baseline that's very unique to 2020. So I think there's a lot to watch in 2021 from a data point perspective, but also from a policy and general guidance perspective [00:17:30] from corporates, governments, everyone.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah, and I think one of the big ones here is also leadership [inaudible 00:17:36] ... in terms of humans, but in terms of institutions in corporate, or government, that some of the most interesting announcements have come from some of the largest players, whether that'd be energy companies or financial companies, or countries themselves. We've heard, discussed before and you and I have talked often about corporate fatigue, and it's one thing to step up [00:18:00] and lead around an idea, but to execute and can one maintain focus either at the country level or the corporate level to deliver on some of this and keep that corporate fatigue? Because a lot of these companies, either there's a cliche that it's hard for tiger to change its stripes, and there's a lot of these companies right now who are tigers trying to change their stripes.

Breanne Dougherty:
But do you know what? This actually brings us probably to our next topic that we're going to be watching really closely because it's a very similar conversation for the US onshore, right? US onshore, all we've [00:18:30] been talking about this year is that this reset and the downside volatility that we've seen in oil prices in particular has prompted consolidation and actually, a shift in business model for the US onshore. So we're going to see whether or not actually, that is what happens. That has been something that's been much talked about, and the expectation is, is that they're going to go to a much more sustainable business model, which is lower growth, higher returns because that's what's being asked of them on the street. That's also naturally, what's going to keep you a little safer for any sort of [00:19:00] oil price volatility that's ahead, particular downside of oil price volatility, but ut it remains to be seen whether or not that's something that actually happens because as you said, the tiger and stripes metaphor there, US onshore is just known for growth. That's always been a priority; growth at all costs, right?

Hill Vaden:
Yeah, I think so. Jessica, when you and I were working on [inaudible 00:19:21] perspective a couple of years ago, that was a lot of our theme, what was on these North America shale producers focused on growth [00:19:30] and a lot of that has changed. Recently yesterday, there was another deal with, I guess it was yesterday, maybe the day before, Diamondback getting larger in the Permian. So we are seeing a consolidation and the executive teams who have been asked to be more prudent, have shown that prudency, but there's a lot that can potentially change.

Next year prices, oil prices, if people learn to operate within a new price environment, yeah, I think that the US onshore [00:20:00] and whether investors come back is a big one to watch. I think Michael Stauffer, was on the podcast several times this year. European gas, I think, is the other interesting piece there between some of the attention on Nord Stream 2, the maturation of LNG and the optionality that that comes for European markets with LNG and natural gas's role in a low carbon future, which Europe seems to be [00:20:30] setting the agenda for a lot of that.

Breanne Dougherty:
Absolutely. I think as we look through 2021, Europe is going to be a very dynamic space to watch, particularly, as you said, from a gas perspective. So interestingly, the change in administration, there has been some use administration policy that's been in place that has been impacting Nord Stream 2 pipeline development, whether or not that, I think there's actually some news out there right now, but whether or not that is shifting. Then whether or not there's going to be further change in that through 2021 is something [00:21:00] to watch as well. As you said, the interesting thing with Europe and when we mentioned about policy for hydrogen here in the United States, Europe has really gone forth with policy initiatives around hydrogen, the EU and individual countries as well. So there is a big push for hydrogen to become part of the energy mix.

I think that's going to be... Is sort of something really to watch in 2021 because now that the policies are in place, sort of how those investments start happening and what that looks like, particularly for the utilities and things of that effect. So we [00:21:30] are going to be watching that really, really closely because it does set a bit of an example, I think, for ways that could develop globally. Just from a general gas perspective, I think what's also interesting is that Europe is going to, 2021, is going to look very similar to 2020 in our opinion from an oversupplied perspective. So Europe is going to be facing some of the same balancing dynamics as they did in 2020. So there's going to be a big story from a gas perspective, I think, through Europe.

Hill Vaden:
Yeah, I think so. So maybe those [00:22:00] are kind of the... a good place for us to kind of sign off. I think the other thing that was a surprise to me, Jessica, was when we looked at some of the usage data or listening data that our initial popularity with those who listened to The Weeknd and Bob Marley and The Wailers has kind of waned as we've moved into the Ariana Grande and Drake community.

Jessica Nelson:
Yeah, very hip set of listeners that we have here, or because I think you dropped The Weeknd's name a couple [00:22:30] of times on previous podcasts because Breanne saw him.

Breanne Dougherty:
That is true. I had an almost sighting. I had a siting of his car and of his fan base screaming hysterically outside of his hotel.

Jessica Nelson:
So either a very hip listener group or everyone was then Googling or Spotify searching for The Weeknd to see who he was. I don't know which one.

Hill Vaden:
Maybe both.

Breanne Dougherty:
Do you think that people who are just randomly Googling The Weeknd are getting our podcasts?

Jessica Nelson:
No, but if you were searching on Spotify after you listened, you may have been like, "Who [00:23:00] is The Weeknd?" Right? Yeah, very interesting. Taylor Swift has been steadily one of the people that's also listened to. So yeah, we're popular with the Taylor Swift, Kanye, Ariana, The Weeknd, Drake. What a diverse group of artists there?

Hill Vaden:
Well, maybe that speaks more to their popularity, that they may be the Kevin Bacon of the Spotify world.

Breanne Dougherty:
Well, I also pointed out I think we do run the risk that maybe it's the parents that own the Spotify account, [00:23:30] but it's children within the home that are listening to the music. So the person who's listening to our podcast might not be the same person within the household.

Jessica Nelson:
I'm going to take the optimistic view and say no. It's that you guys have a hip topic that the young crowd wants to know about.

Hill Vaden:
Which I think is a great place to leave it.

Breanne Dougherty:
[inaudible 00:23:51] ... try to be as hip in 2021 as we were in 2020.

Jessica Nelson:
In your meggings.

Breanne Dougherty:
In our meggings. [crosstalk 00:24:00] ... [00:24:00] from our homes probably still with my children screaming in the background.

Hill Vaden:
[inaudible 00:24:08].

Breanne Dougherty:
Yeah.

Hill Vaden:
All right. Well, thank you, Jessica, for joining us on the mic in the front of the podcast, and thank you all also for producing all of these podcasts for us this year. We look forward to the goal for '21 since we got '21 podcasts in 2020, maybe we can shoot for at least 22 next year.

Jessica Nelson:
[00:24:30] Onward and upward- [crosstalk 00:24:32]

Breanne Dougherty:
... realistic target. We didn't start ours until May this year, so I think that's realistic. We can do it. [inaudible 00:24:36]

Hill Vaden:
All right. Well, thank you, all.

Jessica Nelson:
Great, thanks and here's to 2021.

Breanne Dougherty:
I'll raise a glass.

Jessica Nelson:
To read additional insights from our team of experts, visit our blog at www.ihsmarkit.com/energyblog. You can also find our experts on social media by searching for S&P Global Energy on either Twitter or LinkedIn. Have a topic idea or want to send us [00:25:00] feedback? Email our podcast team at energycents@ihsmarkit.com.

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