AgriFutura is a monthly report published by Phillips McDougall, providing topical insight and analysis of trends impacting the crop protection and seed industry. Our latest AgriFutura offers an overview of coronavirus and its impact to the agricultural industry.

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was first identified during an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. Investigations into the origins of the virus, its pathology and the way it affects humans are ongoing, and the situation is rapidly evolving, with the virus appearing to gain momentum. At present, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern, with the risk assessed as very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level. Epidemiology

According to an article published by IHS Markit on the 5th February, discussing the impact of the novel Coronavirus on the Chinese auto market, there is an estimated 1.1% decline in China's real GDP. This estimate was based on comparisons against the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 which occurred in Guangdong province, a region with a significantly greater share of the country's economy than Hubei, ground zero for the current outbreak. Having said this, a previous report from IHS Markit noted that Hubei is a major transport hub in central mainland China, providing some concern regarding logistics across the region. The number of fatalities across the globe has also exceeded that of SARS, suggesting a potentially greater impact on the Chinese economy despite the lower mortality rates recorded for 2019-nCoV. In addition, the Chinese economy has grown significantly since the early 2000s and therefore any decline in GDP will have a greater impact on the global situation. Phillips McDougall have explored the impact of coronavirus on the Chinese economy, as well as estimating the impact the outbreak will have on the global

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Our latest AgriFutura documents the timeline for coronavirus virology to date, as well as exploring the impact it may have on the agrochemical market. Access full report

Posted 24 February 2020 by Darren Stobbart, Principal Research Analyst, Crop Science, S&P Global Commodity Insights

This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.