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Ukraine's wheat exports slump 53% on year to 325,000 mt in MY 2022-23

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Ukraine's wheat exports slump 53% on year to 325,000 mt in MY 2022-23

Highlights

2022-23 wheat harvest at 8 mil mt as of July 29, down 52.7% on year

Traders remain doubtful of Russia-Ukraine deal to resume grain exports

FOB prices down nearly 7% on month as demand moved to other origins

Ukraine exported about 325,000 mt of wheat in the marketing year 2022-23 (July-June) as of July 29, down 53.2% on the year, the Ministry of Agriculture said in an update July 31.

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The country's wheat exports are anticipated to decline sharply in the current marketing year as the continued war with Russia has destroyed port logistics, traders said.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and the two countries signed a deal on July 22 to resume Ukrainian wheat shipments from Chernomorsk, Odessa, and Yuzhny.

However, trade participants said they were unsure that exports from Ukraine would rise as Russia attacked the Odessa port within a day of signing of the deal and attacked Mykoliav city on July 31.

Ukraine had exported slightly more than 18 million mt of wheat in MY 2021-22, according to its agriculture ministry.

The Ukrainian Grain Association has projected the country's wheat exports at 10 million mt in MY 2022-23.

The US Department of Agriculture has also forecast Ukraine's wheat exports at 10.8 million mt in MY 2022-23. Platts Analytics expects Ukraine to sell 10 million-12 million mt wheat in MY 2022-23.

Platts assessed FOB prices of Ukraine's 11.5% protein wheat at $355/mt July 29, unchanged on the day, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. However, export prices have declined nearly 7% on the month as buyers moved to other sources to procure wheat, traders said.

Output likely to decline

Ukraine's wheat output is also in focus as the war has adversely impacted farmland and destroyed farm equipment.

As of July 29, Ukrainian farmers harvested 8 million mt wheat, down 52.7% on the year, according to ministry data. The data showed Ukraine had harvested around 16.9 million mt wheat till the same period last year.

The Ukrainian Grain Association has its Ukraine wheat output estimate for MY 2022-23 at 20.8 million mt, 37% below the previous year's level.

Ukraine harvested 33 million mt of wheat in MY 2021-22, according to data from Ukraine's agriculture ministry.

Ending stocks for the crop will likely be at 10 million mt for MY 2022-23, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.

The USDA, in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released July 12, pegged Ukraine's wheat harvest at 19.5 million mt in MY 2022-23. Platts Analytics sees Ukraine's wheat production in MY 2022-23 at 20 million-22 million mt.