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Register NowNew York Independent System Operator wholesale power prices were about 82%-129% higher in August from a year ago, driven largely by natural gas prices that were about 117% higher on the year and power prices that are expected to average $89/MWh through December.
NYISO Zone J New York City on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $117.93/MWh in August, about 121% above the August 2021 average of $53.26/MWh, and about 10% higher than July, according to NYISO data.
On-peak real-time power prices at the hub averaged $129.00/MWh in August, which was around 141% higher on year and about 17% higher on month.
"On-peak NY-J prices are expected to average $89/MWh for August-December, up $3 from last month's forecast, driven largely by continued elevated price expectations for the remainder of the summer," power market analysts at Platts Analytics said in a recent research note.
NYISO Zone G Hudson Valley on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $113.94/MWh in August, roughly 129% higher on year and about 11% above July. On-peak real-time power prices at the hub were nearly 152% higher on year in August to average $122.70/MWh.
NYISO Zone A Western New York on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $98.53/MWh in August, roughly 82% higher on year and about 23% higher on month.
Transco Zone 6 New York spot gas prices averaged $8.14/MMBtu in August, nearly 117% higher than the August 2021 average of $3.75/MMBtu. Spot gas prices at the hub were about 21% higher in August than in July.
"Delivered gas prices are expected to remain elevated through the remainder of the year and into next year," Platts Analytics said. "Gas prices for the winter (November-March) have elevated slightly to an average of $13.40/MMBtu from $12.70/MMBtu in our prior outlook" and prices are not expected to moderate until next April, the analysts said.
NYISO power demand was 1.2% higher in August on month with peakload averaging 25,378 MW compared with 25,076 MW in July, according to NYISO data. Peakload was 2.1% higher on year in August.
Weather across the NYISO territory was slightly cooler in August when the average high was 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit compared with an average high of 85.2 F in July, according to CustomWeather data. The average low temperature was essentially flat on month in August along with cooling degree days that averaged 11.5 in August and 12.0 in July.
Power generation fuel mix
"Gas-fired generation exceeded 10 aGW for August to help meet the incremental demand, nearly constant year on year," Platts Analytics said. "This is largely anticipated though, as natural gas still made up 47% of NYISO's generation stack in 2021 and we anticipate it will grow slightly to 50% for 2022," the analysts said.
Dual-fuel units, which typically run on gas with a backup fuel like oil, accounted for 31.7% of the NYISO fuel mix in August, down from 32.8% in July and 32.2% in August 2021, according to NYISO data.
Gas-fired power accounted for 29.1% of the NYISO generation mix, up from 27.2% in July and 26% in August 2021.
Nuclear power was flat in August, accounting for 18.6% of the fuel mix and down slightly on year when it accounted for 19.3% in August 2021.
Hydropower was largely unchanged, while wind power declined slightly to account for 1.6% of the fuel mix in August, down from 2.2% in July.
Forward power, gas prices
NYISO Zone G on-peak forward power prices for September averaged $102.99/MWh in August trading, roughly 133% higher on year and about 7% higher on month, according to Platts M2MS data. Forward power for October averaged $96.52/MWh, about 137% higher on year, and forward power for November averaged $125.57/MWh, around 158% higher on year.
NYISO Zone J on-peak forward power prices for September averaged $104.58/MWh in August trading, around 123% higher on the year and 4% higher on the month. The October contract averaged $103.87/MWh, about 139% higher on year, and the November package averaged $129.07/MWh which was about 153% higher on year.
Zone A on-peak forward power prices for September averaged $80.23/MWh in August trading, around 92% higher on year and 9% higher on month. The October contract averaged $70.03/MWh, around 139% higher on year, and the November contract averaged $68.41/MWh, about 150% higher on year.
The Transco Zone 6 forward gas price for September averaged $7.62/MMBtu in August trading, roughly 150% higher on year and about 29% higher on month. Forward gas prices for October averaged $7.50/MMBtu, nearly 155% higher on year, and the November contract averaged $8.65/MMBtu, about 121% higher than year-ago levels.