The Polish farmers' protest, which intensified in the last few weeks, has become a cause of concern for Ukrainian agricultural exports, as Poland remains a key alternative route to the Black Sea, the director of Ukrainian Agribusiness Club at the EU office said in an interview.
The Polish farmers have been protesting the import and transit of Ukrainian grains since January, alleging that poor quality Ukrainian produce is harming the country's food supply. The protest intensified around mid-February, with farmers blocking Ukraine's borders.
Nazar Bobitski of UCAB called the Polish claims of the oversaturation of their market as "untrue", as only 5% of the total volume of 6.7 million mt of Ukrainian cereals and oilseeds exported in January went through Poland while the bulk of it was sent through Romania and the Port of Constanta.
"The Polish government still maintains a national backlog of imports of Ukrainian cereals, so they allow only transit... We already do not sell any wheat to Poland per se," Bobitski told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
During marketing year 2023-24 (July-June), Ukraine's corn exports stood at 15.43 million mt while those of wheat were at 11.26 million mt as of Feb. 26, according to Ukranian's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food data.
MY 2024-25 cereals acreage seen lower
Ukrainian farmers are likely to cut down the cereals and rapeseed acreage for MY 2024-25 as against MY 2023-24.
"Our farmers are in the red and they are very likely to significantly cut down the sowing area, at least by 17%, for the next marketing year," UCAB director said.
Thus, it is difficult to forecast the country's cereals exports for MY 2024-25, he added. However, UCAB's preliminary data shows that Ukraine's MY 2024-25 cereals, including wheat, corn and barley, exports may reach 35-40 million mt.
"This forecast may change depending on several factors... The EU is planning to introduce safeguard measures to limit imports of poultry and eggs from Ukraine but the European Aquafood Lobby lobbies to limit cereals imports as well," Bobitski said.
If Europe introduces any measures that limit the trade or transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, it will have a direct impact on Ukraine's microeconomic stability, he added.
Ukraine plans to ship grains via Danube
Though Ukraine continues to export grains through the Black Sea route, it is not fully secure, Bobitski said.
"It is a unilaterally secured route, but very precarious because the Russians can still block the passage of vessels at any time."
Amid the Black Sea port blockages and tensions on Polish border, Ukraine plans to export its grains to central and western Europe via new routes along the Danube River.
Ukraine can also export using the Romanian port and the railway infrastructure on the Black Sea, he added.