This week, Americas oil markets are adjusting to more trade flow shifts a year into Russia's war on Ukraine. The Biden administration is under pressure to lower fuel prices, but with Russian supply out of the picture and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve nearing its minimum threshold, options are limited. US Gulf Coast crude prices will are expected to find direction this week from upcoming contracts and deliveries of 26 million SPR barrels.

The aluminum industry will also be watching for market changes, as the US has said it will impose a 200% tariff on aluminum from Russia starting in March. In April, the duty will also apply to imported aluminum products from other countries that are made with Russian aluminum.

In natural gas, feedgas demand is set to increase at the Freeport LNG terminal as the Texas export facility ramps up operations after an eight-month outage. This should provide support for Gulf Coast gas prices, which have been stagnating on oversupply and light demand.

In shipping, freight for US Gulf Coast-loading Medium Range refined products tankers is expected to take a U-turn, bouncing off recent traded lows on routes to Europe and Brazil. Extremely tight tonnage availabilities amid more USGC export barrels in early March are expected to drive rates up.

Finally, eastern US wholesale power market PJM Interconnection will release the 2024-25 power capacity auction clearing prices late Monday afternoon. It had delayed releasing the results due to a mismatch in supply and demand in the Delmarva Power & Light delivery area.

I'm Laura Huchzermeyer. Thanks for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.