Crude markets are on a downturn as economic outlooks have turned bearish and the Israel-Hamas war has so far not spread to the wider Middle East. Prices stabilized late last week, but forward outlooks remain uncertain. The market is balancing record-high US output and rising OPEC+ output against global economic indicators of a potential recession.

The demand picture is clearer in refined products. Refinery maintenance in the northeast US and Europe has limited production and imports into the Atlantic Coast, leading to a shortage of gasoline supplies for the first half of November. But with pipelines fully allocated and refineries coming out of maintenance, prices are seen sharply backwardated and sources say the region will be "swimming in gasoline" by the end of November.

Soybeans futures are under pressure from a higher-than-expected stock estimate from the US Department of Agriculture. Corn ending stocks were also higher than average estimates from analysts, indicating higher supply for feed, residual use, and ethanol production. Lower costs for biofuel feedstocks and historically high renewable diesel production have sunk RIN prices to multiyear lows, and prices for feedstock crops will likely stay under pressure due to steady harvest progress and plentiful supply.

Turning to metals, sentiment for US finished steel prices has grown increasingly bullish in November. Domestic mills have issued a series of price increases for hot-rolled coil and other sheet products. As spot prices have risen, buyers have been keeping a cautious approach and sticking to contract purchases as much as possible.

I’m Colleen Ferguson. Thanks for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.