보기: Market Movers Americas, Feb 28-March 4: US energy markets feel ripple effects from Russia-Ukraine conflict

In this week's Market Movers: President Biden will address climate policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict during the State of the Union address; derivative US benzene prices continue to lag crude futures gains; geopolitical tension sends tanker rates soaring; and grains prices react to the uncertainty in major producing country Ukraine.

Starting in Washington, US President Joe Biden is set to give his first State of the Union address on March 1 and lay out a renewed vision for climate policy in the remaining months before the November midterm elections. Oil and gas markets will also be watching for the latest US policy on Russia – including any moves to impose energy sanctions or coordinate a global release of emergency oil stocks. Risks to global energy trades are rising as the US and European allies committed to blocking some Russian banks from the international payment messaging service SWIFT. Biden has so far steered clear of targeting energy flows to limit price pain for US drivers and avoid disruptions to energy supplies.

Turning to the shipping sector, Americas tanker markets have turned bullish amid the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and shipowners are likely to keep the upper hand this week. Over two consecutive sessions, freight for crude tanker benchmark VLCC 270,000 metric-ton US Gulf Coast-to-China runs rose 46% and Aframax, 70,000 metric-ton USGC-Transatlantic runs rose 17%. Aframax traders are mixed on the potential impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on freight in the short term as fundamentals outside of the geopolitical uncertainty appear bearish. The Forward Freight Agreement market has hinted at sustainable higher rates.

This brings us to our social media question of the week: With geopolitical conflict as the ongoing backdrop, is volatility in upstream energy the new normal or will prices eventually stabilize? Tweet us your thoughts using the hashtag #PlattsMM.

In agriculture, the disruption to export operations out of the Black Sea may not provide significant long-term support to US corn values. While Ukraine had been expected to export 16.5% of global corn exports in the 2021-2022 marketing year, much of that volume has already been shipped to the main buyer, China. More immediately, though, rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine supported CBOT grain futures in recent weeks as the market considered the potential disruption to Ukrainian wheat and corn exports, and prices spiked after the Russian invasion last week. Wheat futures were locked limit up and old crop corn prices topped 7 dollars per bushel, though Friday brought a decisive reversal and profit-taking that erased the gains.

Finally in petrochemicals, despite the backdrop of volatility in the upstream energy market complex, derivative benzene markets are expected to retain weakness relative to WTI crude futures. US benzene prices have risen just 2.7% since the start of the year to 375 cents/gal, even though upstream crude futures have hiked 22% over that same time as Russia-Ukraine tensions have escalated. The benzene-to-crude price ratio stands at 1.7, weaker relative to crude than the historical average of 2 in a balanced market. Benzene inventories are snug, but planned and unplanned derivative outages in the first half of this year are expected to subdue benzene gains relative to higher crude futures until H2.

For those attending the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers' International Petrochemicals Conference next month in San Antonio, Texas, S&P Global Platts will be hosting a forum on March 27, as well as a reception. We'd love to see you there.

The Platts Atlas of Energy Transition is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future. You can explore the Atlas by visiting the address displayed on your screen. Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us, and have a great week ahead.