보기: Market Movers Americas, May 23-27: Infrastructure, summer supply planning in the spotlight

In this week's Market Movers: the steel industry meets to update trade laws and domestic buying guidelines, state regulators release their summer electric reliability outlooks, and low Canadian gas stocks could threaten US supply.

Starting in metals, US steel industry representatives will gather in Washington this week as the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Steel Manufacturers Association host their annual meetings. The leadership of these organizations said at an event last week that the industry is pushing Congress to pass legislation that would update the nation's trade laws and bolster domestic material procurement guidelines for federally funded infrastructure projects. Enhancements to US antidumping and countervailing duty trade laws have been included in the Senate's Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0 and the US House of Representatives' America COMPETES Act, both of which have been passed in their respective chambers. Members of the House and Senate are now working to draft a final bill that reconciles differences between the two bills.

In Washington, a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission summer reliability outlook released May 19 found all US regions may face energy shortfalls during extreme operating conditions. The New York Independent System Operator is scheduled to release its summer electricity supply-demand outlook May 27. ISO New England is also expected to release its summer reliability outlook this week, although a specific date has not been set. The highest power demand of the year typically occurs during the hottest and most humid summer days, when indoor cooling demand is highest. Natural gas storage stocks in Western Canada have hit record lows, and the likelihood of strong production means constraints could keep injections limited through the rest of summer as exports to the US are prioritized. If inventories do not start significantly rising toward historic averages, the Canadian government could step in to boost injections as it has done in the past. But if inventories do start winter at record lows, Alberta prices could tighten significantly and keep gas in Western Canada at the expense of exports to the US this coming winter, with exports potentially falling 500 MMcf/d, or even 1 Bcf/d, from S&P Global Commodity Insights' forecast, potentially driving Henry Hub prices even higher.

Temperatures across the desert Southwest are expected to rise above 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week, likely spurring a rally in gas and power prices across the region. At the SoCal city-gate, gas prices are already trading in the upper $8 per MMBtu range and could be expected to rally, potentially hitting record highs for late May. The California Independent System Operator has forecast peakload at 34 GW May 26, 24% above the month-to-date average and the highest level since September. Power prices, meanwhile, were already up about $10 day on day late last week, with SP15 on-peak day-ahead in the low $60s/MWh for May 23 and Palo Verde spot in the low-$70s.

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