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Market Movers Asia, Feb 14-18: Commodity markets on edge as Ukraine crisis escalates

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보기: Market Movers Asia, Feb 14-18: Commodity markets on edge as Ukraine crisis escalates

  • 주요 내용
  • Ayush Verma
  • 원자재
  • Agriculture Energy Coal LNG Oil Metals
  • 길이
  • 03:38

On this week's Platts Market Movers Asia with Associate Editor Ayush Verma: Oil prices are surging towards the $100/b mark amid rising tensions over Ukraine (00:14)

Other highlights from Asia's commodity markets:

*Biden administration turns to Asia to secure LNG for Europe (01:06)

*Eyes on India's vegetable oil imports data and soaring palm oil prices in Indonesia (01:45)

*Aluminum prices in China are surging due to COVID-19 related lockdowns (02:46)

전체 원고 보기

This week: Aluminum prices in China are expected to surge further due to COVID-19 related lockdowns, spotlight is on India's vegetable oil imports and soaring palm oil prices in Indonesia and Asian countries are looking to divert surplus LNG to Europe.

But first, refiners and fuel distributors across Asia are closely monitoring the impact of rising pump prices on near-term consumer demand, as oil prices inch towards the 100 dollars a barrel mark amid escalating tensions over Ukraine.

The demand outlook for oil from top Asian energy consumers remains resilient following a lengthy period of pandemic-hit uneven growth.

But keeping the retail fuel prices in check remains one of the biggest priorities for the governments in Asia, as they try to tame inflation and keep economic recovery on track.

Meanwhile, several Northeast Asian refiners are drawing up contingency plans in case the escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow lead to legal, financial, and administrative hurdles in doing business with Russian oil entities.

Some US and Malaysian crude grades are set to be included in the list of potential replacement grades for Russia's ESPO Blend, Sokol and Sakhalin Blend.

The Biden administration has been scouring Asia for surplus LNG cargoes for Europe in case the Ukraine crisis escalates. It's part of a contingency plan to shore up supplies if the Ukraine crisis escalates into a conflict that cuts off Russian gas supply.

The Biden administration is counting on allies like major LNG producers Qatar and Australia, and even LNG buyers like Japan, China, India and South Korea who may be willing to forego temporary LNG supply.

Last week, Japan's Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda said the country had decided to cooperate with the EU and the US requests to divert surplus LNG cargoes to Europe.

Next up, in the vegetable oils market, all eyes are on the world's largest vegetable oil buyer- India- as it releases key trade data this week.

Early market estimates indicated that India's soybean and sunflower oil imports in January could account for 58% of the total vegetable oil imports, overshadowing palm oil imports. This reflects India's changing vegetable oil trade flows as palm oil prices equal or exceed the traditionally costlier soft oils due to supply concerns and high demand.

Markets will be closely watching palm oil prices that have hovered close to their record highs. The world's largest palm oil exporter Indonesia expanded its export restrictions, while labor issues at smaller rival Malaysia hampered production. FOB physical prices in Indonesia hit 1457 dollars per metric ton last week, reaching the highest level since Platts started assessing it in 2019.

That brings us to our social media question for the week: Do you think palm oil prices will strengthen this week amid supply concerns in Indonesia and Malaysia? Share your thoughts on Twitter and LinkedIn with the hashtag PlattsMM.

Moving to metals, aluminum prices are expected to rise further in the near term, after hitting a 13-year high on the London Metal Exchange last week.

In China, the world's largest producer and consumer of aluminum, prices of primary aluminum continued to gain after the Lunar New Year holidays. This was due to a key hub in Guangxi going into a lockdown due to rising COVID-19 cases.

The price uptrend is expected to continue in the near term, but gains could be capped if the situation in Guangxi is contained.

Buyers of coal in the country are also likely to remain on the sidelines and assess the global price movement with its top economic body National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, pushing for domestic price control.

For more on the issues affecting commodity markets from wherever you are, make sure to check out Platts LIVE at the address displayed on your screen.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us. Have a great week ahead!