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Market Movers Asia, April 11-15: China's COVID-19 lockdowns pose threat to oil demand recovery

Energy | Oil | Refined Products | Jet Fuel

S&P Global Commodity Insights항공유

Energy | Oil | Refined Products | Gasoline

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보기: Market Movers Asia, April 11-15: China's COVID-19 lockdowns pose threat to oil demand recovery

  • 주요 내용
  • Ivy Yin
  • 원자재
  • Agriculture Energy Energy Transition Oil Metals
  • 길이
  • 04:31

On this week's S&P Global Commodity Insights' Market Movers Asia with Ivy Yin: Tax cuts on oil products by many countries in Asia are expected to boost fuel consumption though COVID-19 lockdowns in China pose a threat to oil demand (00:16)

Other highlights from Asia's commodity markets:

*Steel data from Japan, China is in focus (01:37)

*Activity remains tepid in the voluntary carbon market (02:25)

*Australian wheat is in demand after Indonesia suspends imports from India (03:09)

전체 원고 보기

This week: The war in Ukraine continues to impact sentiment in the voluntary carbon market, steel data from Japan and China is in focus, and Australian wheat is in demand after Indonesia suspended imports from India.

But first, gasoline and diesel marketers across Asia expect to see improved consumer sentiment and demand over the coming days as many governments in the region have cut taxes on oil products amid rising inflation.

Last week, South Korea decided to cut taxes on automotive fuels. Also, Thailand has cut the excise tax on diesel while the Vietnamese government has lowered environmental protection taxes on oil products.

In a further boost to demand, crude and condensate traders at major Asian refiners said they may revise their monthly crude price forecasts a tad lower. This comes after the International Energy Agency said that member countries have agreed to release 120 million barrels of oil from storage, the largest ever release in its history.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 continues to hit oil demand in China, Asia's largest consumer. The lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial center and transportation hub, is likely to continue for the next two weeks with the number of confirmed cases surging. With economic activity hit, most of the refineries across the country are cutting crude throughput to offset product inventory pressure.

In metals, markets will eye important data from China and Japan.

China will release March steel export data on April 13. Exports of both finished and semi-finished steel are expected to increase from the average of the previous two months. With strong export order bookings in March due to the Ukraine war, this trend is likely to continue in April.

Japan's projections for the local steel industry for the April-June period will be closely watched by the markets. Market participants expect the data to point to a demand slowdown as demand from domestic automakers has weakened due to the shortage of automotive parts, especially semiconductors.

In the voluntary carbon market, the macro-economic turmoil continues to weigh on markets. Concerns over fresh sanctions on Russia and indications from the US Federal Reserve on potential interest rate hikes to control inflation hit sentiment. Demand was expected to pick up in the new financial year but tepid activity on the carbon exchanges continues, mirroring the weakness seen in the financial and commodity markets.

That brings us to the social media question for the week: Will Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshape demand in the global voluntary carbon market in the near term? Share your thoughts on Twitter and LinkedIn

And finally, in agriculture, grain markets will be tracking Australian wheat trade after Indonesia suspended agricultural imports from India. Indonesia has been looking for cheap wheat after supplies from Black Sea came to a halt amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

Indonesia, which has been a key buyer of Ukrainian wheat, was expected to source its wheat from India. However, it banned purchases from India after the latter failed to issue quality certificates.

Indonesia may turn to Australia to source its wheat purchases.

Meanwhile, Malaysia – the world's second largest palm oil exporter – will release data on its March-end inventories today. An S&P Global Commodity Insights survey showed that inventories are expected to see an uptick. Market participants will be watching for a rise in supply as the country enters a higher output seasonal phase.

However, palm oil prices will have limited downside as the ongoing war in Ukraine is choking around half of the world's sunflower oil exports, leaving vegetable oil buyers with little choice.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us. Have a great week ahead!