보기: Market Movers Asia, May 9-13: Heat wave in India weighs on wheat output, fuels coal demand

This week: Strong power demand in India is expected to support Indonesian thermal coal prices, Asia-Pacific LNG spot trading activity may rise as participants return from holidays, and a heat wave is likely to weigh on Indian wheat production.

But first, crude oil and middle distillate traders are eyeing refinery operations in Thailand and Indonesia with rising travel expected to drive demand for transportation fuel. Thai refiners plan to actively purchase spot crude cargoes to top up their overall feedstock intake to accommodate rising refinery run rates. Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy expects domestic fuel demand to rapidly increase with its tourism industry poised to make a stellar recovery. Thailand imported 2.34 million barrels per day of crude oil in March, jumping almost threefold year on year.

Thailand has announced intentions to end pre-arrival testing for arriving guests on May 1. The Tourism Authority of Thailand said the country aims to attract at least 1 million tourists per month by the end of 2022. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated that Thailand's gasoline demand would rise to around 192,000 barrels per day by summer holiday season in July.

Indonesia's state-run Pertamina also indicated that it would reassess domestic fuel demand outlook and transportation fuel production plan at its major Cilacap refinery. The country's major cities and tourist hotspots, including Bali, have reopened to international flights.

Next up, in the Asian thermal coal market, Indian seaborne demand is likely to support Indonesian thermal coal prices as the world's second-largest importer of the fuel faces a severe stockpile crunch. With temperatures soaring to 100 year-high levels, the surge in power demand prompted the Indian government to direct states to speed up imports for deliveries in May.

The market is therefore expecting a healthy demand for Indonesian low-cv coal even though China, a major buyer, is seeing its demand reduced by coronavirus restrictions. Australian high-ash coal prices are also expected to remain resilient on supply tightness and steady demand from the Japan-Korea and Taiwan market.

Moving to agriculture, global wheat markets are watching India as a severe heat wave is likely to weigh on its wheat production and export outlook at a time of tightening global supplies. High temperatures in major growing regions have forced a reduction in expectations of India's wheat crop size in marketing year 2022-23 to about 105 million metric tons, according to an official with the agriculture ministry. This is lower than the latest government estimates of about 111 million metric tons.

A drop in the output could limit India's export potential. The development comes at a crucial time when Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, is looking to secure supplies from India. Influenced by the unfavorable weather, India's wheat exports could tumble to 9 million-10 million metric tons, from an earlier estimate of 11 million-12 million metric tons.

That brings us to our social media question for the week: Do you think Indian wheat exports will be able to weather the rising temperatures? Share your thoughts on Twitter and LinkedIn.

And finally, the Asia-Pacific LNG market could see spot trading activity picking up this week as China and Japanese firms return from their week-long holidays. Market participants will be keeping watch on the impacts of EU's gradual ban imposed on Russian oil, amid expectations of restocking demand improving closer to the peak summer demand season. Despite limited downstream demand from North Asian end-users, market fundamentals have become more balanced on interest for prompt deliveries in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

And that's a wrap for this week's Market Movers Asia. Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a wonderful week ahead!