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Market Movers Asia, May 30-June 3: China's economic package, oil product export quotas in focus

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보기: Market Movers Asia, May 30-June 3: China's economic package, oil product export quotas in focus

  • 주요 내용
  • Pritish Raj
  • 원자재
  • Agriculture Coal Electric Power Oil Metals
  • 길이
  • 03:34

On this week's S&P Global Commodity Insights' Market Movers Asia with Pritish Raj: Market participants will keep an eye on the implementation of China's comprehensive economic package, which is expected to boost demand for commodities (00:18)

Other highlights from Asia's commodity markets:

*China's domestic aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure (01:19)

*Onset of monsoon may create supply challenges in Asian thermal coal market (01:48)

*Capacity of Australian ports to handle wheat exports is in focus (02:37)

전체 원고 보기

This week: All eyes are on China's oil product export quotas, domestic aluminum prices in China are likely to remain under pressure in the near-term, the onset of monsoon is expected to create supply challenges in the Asian thermal coal market and wheat export capacity of Australian ports is in focus.

But first, market participants will keep an eye on the implementation of a comprehensive economic package announced by China. The set of 33 measures, aimed at bringing the economy back on track, are expected to boost demand for commodities.

China's dynamic "zero-COVID" strategy had slowed economic activity since early March. The country's crude throughput had slumped to a two-year low in April due to the subsequent lockdowns. But with government's emphasis on improving logistics and boosting infrastructure development, traders expect a recovery in jet fuel and gasoil demand. This may boost crude throughput in the coming months.

Market participants will also watch China's oil product exports in June, which are likely to rise to offset tight supplies in the current Asian market. They expect Beijing to release an additional 3.5 million metric tons of export quotas for gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel to ease the country's inventory pressure and boost crude throughput.

Staying with China, all eyes remain on the pace of China's recovery from COVID-19 outbreaks, which has adversely impacted demand for metals. China's May PMI data is expected to show a slow recovery in manufacturing activity due to the pandemic. Steel demand is expected to remain dismal at a time supply is abundant.

Meanwhile, China's domestic aluminum prices will remain under pressure in the near-term as production continues to outpace downstream demand.

In coal, the onset of the monsoon may create supply challenges in the Asian thermal coal market. It remains to be seen whether Chinese buyers will return to drive demand at a time when Indonesian coal prices have remained rangebound. Traders are waiting to see if inflow of cheaper Russian supplies will be sufficient to meet the demand from Chinese buyers looking to stock up inventories. Indian power demand is expected to weaken with the onset of monsoon but import demand is still seen firm as domestic supply may be impacted by the rains. The high freight rates seen off-late have also been a dampener for the markets.

That brings us to the social media question of the week: Will there be a correction in Indonesian coal prices amid absence of Chinese buyers? Share your thoughts with us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

And finally, in agriculture, grain markets are closely tracking Australian wheat exports potential for the rest of Marketing Year 2021-22. The capacity of Australian ports' is seen limiting the country's shipment potential. With India restricting wheat exports, Australia is expected to be a stable supplier, but limited logistical capacity continues to make buyers anxious.

Staying with agriculture, the world's top vegetable oil buyer India allowed tax free imports of 2 million metric tons soybean oil and sunflower oil last week. But traders said high prices and scarce supplies could keep India's annual quota of sunflower oil imports unfulfilled. This could delay cooking oil price relief for Indian consumers.

For more on the issues affecting commodity markets from wherever you are, make sure to check out Platts LIVE at the address displayed on your screen.

Thank you for kicking off your Monday with us. Have a great week ahead!