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Market Movers Asia, June 27-July 1: Commodity markets will eye OPEC+ meeting, China’s demand recovery

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보기: Market Movers Asia, June 27-July 1: Commodity markets will eye OPEC+ meeting, China’s demand recovery

  • 주요 내용
  • Pankaj Rao
  • 원자재
  • Agriculture Energy Coal Electric Power Energy Transition Oil Metals
  • 길이
  • 03:19

On this week's S&P Global Commodity Insights' Market Movers Asia with Pankaj Rao: All eyes will be on the meeting of the OPEC+ alliance on June 30 that will discuss August crude output plans (00:12)

Other highlights from Asia's commodity markets:

*Demand for coal from China is likely to increase (01:15)

*China's steel supply glut is likely to continue (01:45)

*Spotlight is on cookstoves segment of the voluntary carbon market (02:07)

*Rise in wheat prices due to supply shortages may hurt Asian buyers (02:38)

전체 원고 보기

This week: Heat waves in China are likely to increase demand for Indonesian coal, the spotlight is on wheat prices amid tightening supply and steel markets will be closely watching China's demand recovery.

But first, all eyes will be on the meeting of the OPEC+ alliance on June 30 that will discuss August output plans. Market watchers widely expect the group to stick to its stance to accelerate production. In its meeting earlier this month, OPEC+ had agreed to boost output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August. But market participants say the group has a poor track record of delivering on those output hikes. Limited spare capacity and underinvestment has meant that many OPEC+ members fall far short of their pledged quotas.

The decision of OPEC+ will come at a time surging oil prices are impacting demand. For instance, high global oil prices applied brakes on India's appetite for crude oil. Data from the country's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed that India's oil imports in May were 9 per cent lower from April.

That brings us to our social media question for the week: Will OPEC+ alliance be able to keep up with its promised output increases for August?Share your thoughts on Twitter and LinkedIn.

In coal, heat waves in China are likely to see a surge in power demand in the country. Market participants expect that this may increase the appetite for seaborne thermal coal. This is likely to lend support to Indonesian low calorific value coal prices. Markets will also keep a close watch on how demand pans out from Europe for mid to high calorific value coal. The gas supply and storage volatility may make European buyers eye Asian coal, especially when Russian tonnages stop from August onwards.

In metals, steel markets will be watching the pace of China's steel demand recovery and output cuts in the coming weeks for clarity on price direction. Steel mills are also expected to undertake maintenance activities as margins remain under pressure. However, output cuts are expected to remain modest for the rest of June, providing no immediate relief to the supply glut.

Moving on, some news from the cookstoves segment in the voluntary carbon market. The cookstoves segment is fast developing in South Asia because of its tremendous potential to replace traditional cookstoves in rural communities.

The spot cookstoves market is witnessing high prices and resilience in household credits. However, market participants in Asia point out that initial developers are unable to benefit from the higher spot prices. This is because most developers were forced to sign forward delivery contracts at pre-set lower prices.

And finally, in agriculture, grain markets are closely watching wheat crop conditions in European nations like France and Romania.Severe heatwaves may weigh on wheat output in these countries and further tighten trade. Estimates for EU soft wheat yields were cut for third straight month due to drier-than-usual weather in some key producing regions.

With global wheat supply already tight, a decline in the European shipments may lead to a further price rise in the coming months. This could impact Asian buyers, like Indonesia, who are also seeking European wheat as wheat prices of traditional seller Australia have remained high.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us. Have a great week ahead!