This week, China's independent refiners are expected to continue opting for Iranian crude over Russian cargoes, as price differentials for Russia's ESPO and Urals crude extend gains amid Moscow's commitment to a 500,000 b/d cut in August crude supply and 300,000 b/d reductions for September.
In agriculture, the US talks with Ukraine’s neighboring countries and Turkey to increase the use of alternative export routes for Ukrainian grains will be in focus as the move is likely to increase corn supplies to China, the largest importer of Ukrainian grains.
China has recently seen damage in its key corn-growing regions with recurring typhoons and an alternative route could cover any supply deficit.
In Asian thermal coal markets, demand is seen coming back with the return of Indian buyers after a long break.
Oversupply in China’s lithium salt market is likely to keep prices subdued this week. However, prices could increase going into September, having fallen in mid-July.
Carbon markets will be watching South Korean price movement, which fell to a record low on a lack of demand and certain participants selling their free-allocated allowances at cheaper levels.
Meanwhile, China’s compliance carbon price hit a record high as companies moved early to buy compliance emission allowances to avoid the year-end rush to meet their obligations.
I am Shivam Prakash, thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.