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World of oil in London for IP Week

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  • Sam Eckett
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  • Coal Natural Gas Oil Shipping
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  • 04:51

In this week's Market Movers, with Sam Eckett, Associate Editor, Freight Markets: Freight markets brace for another potential round in the US-China trade war; The wheat market will be looking to EU export data; and ExxonMobil is set to say if it has struck gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

First off, the movers and shakers of the oil world will be in London for IP Week. S&P Global Platts London Oil and Energy Forum is being held this Monday, and conference itself gets underway on Tuesday.

An issue looming closer for the container and dry bulk freight markets than IMO 2020 is the potential impact of the US-China tariffs due to come into force on March 2.

Data set to be released by the EU Crops Market Observatory will be closely scrutinized to see if it shows a rise in the pace of the bloc's wheat exports.

Meanwhile, the European coal market will be focusing on imports. Several cargoes of South African and Australian coal are scheduled to arrive in the ARA hub this week.

And finally, US major ExxonMobil is this week expected to announce the results from two key gas wells it has recently drilled offshore Cyprus.

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Spotting the big oil trends ahead of IP Week 2019

As traders are set to gather in London for IP Week, Platts reporters from across the barrel tell Joel Hanley which oil stories will be heard in the meetings and parties around town.

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In this week's highlights: Freight markets brace for another potential round in the US-China trade war; The wheat market will be looking to EU export data; and ExxonMobil is set to say if it has struck gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

But first, the movers and shakers of the oil world will be in London for IP Week. S&P Global Platts London Oil and Energy Forum is being held this Monday, and conference itself gets underway on Tuesday. Key speakers at IP Week include BP CEO Bob Dudley and Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser.

On Wednesday climate change and its significance for markets comes under the microscope, with speeches from the upstream chiefs of BP and Total, and UK international trade secretary Liam Fox.

On Thursday the Middle East is the focus, with a speech from UAE energy minister Suhail Al. Refining, Africa, and Russia are among the numerous other topics under discussion during the week as well as and new rules on the shipping industry's fuel oil consumption, known as IMO 2020.

An issue looming closer for the container and dry bulk freight markets than IMO 2020 is the potential impact of the increased US-China tariffs, which were due to come into force on Saturday. The tariffs were likely to cut US imports along trans-Pacific trade lanes, resulting in falling freight rates.

However, on Sunday US President Donald Trump said that the scheduled increase in tariffs would be delayed, as Washington and Beijing looked to make "additional progress" at further talks.

China has proposed purchasing a further $30 billion worth of US agricultural products including soybeans, corn and wheat as part of a possible trade deal.

Nevertheless, further falls are expected in the container markets over the course of the week before rates begin to rise again as Chinese industry comes fully back on line in March.

And trade will be on the minds of the EU and Black Sea wheat markets later Monday. Data set to be released by the EU Crops Market Observatory will be closely scrutinized to see if it shows a rise in the pace of the bloc's wheat exports. Should the data bolster EU prices, this in turn might bring buyers back to the Russian deep water port wheat market. Due to competitive prices from alternative origins such as the EU, Russian Black Sea 12.5% protein wheat prices are hovering at two and a half month lows.

While the wheat market looks to exports, the European coal market will be focusing on imports. Several cargoes of South African and Australian coal are scheduled to arrive in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam hub this week as weak demand from Asian markets forces sellers to look to Europe. These cargoes are arriving into an already oversupplied market. As you can see from the chart, CIF ARA thermal coal prices have been on a downtrend since the start of the year.

Adding to the pressure are reports that some Chinese coal terminals have been instructed to raise clearance times for Australian cargoes dramatically, with the implication of halting Australian coal deliveries altogether. This could mean Australian coal looking for alternative homes, displacing coal from other origins into Europe.

And finally, US major ExxonMobil is this week expected to announce the results from two key gas wells it has recently drilled offshore Cyprus.

There have already been two significant gas finds in the waters south of Cyprus, Noble Energy's Aphrodite and Eni's Calypso. Block 10, where Exxon and partner Qatar Petroleum are drilling, is seen as similarly prospective.

A big find in Block 10 could shift the gas dynamics in Cyprus and the wider East Mediterranean, with a stand-alone Cypriot LNG export plant and pipeline exports to Europe or Egypt all possible future options to monetize the gas. [GRAPHIC OUT]

Interest in the East Mediterranean has been high since the discovery of the supergiant Zohr field off Egypt in 2015. However, the geopolitics of Cyprus mean all might not be plain sailing. Cyprus has been divided since 1974 between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, which is only recognized by Turkey. Turkey and Northern Cyprus have long complained that exploration and drilling offshore Cyprus sanctioned by the internationally recognized government is unlawful and that any natural resources should be divided between the Republic of Cyprus and Northern Cyprus.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a great week ahead.