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Market Movers Europe, Feb 28-Mar 4: Ukraine invasion weighs on markets, policymakers step in to stabilize

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보기: Market Movers Europe, Feb 28-Mar 4: Ukraine invasion weighs on markets, policymakers step in to stabilize

  • 주요 내용
  • Nikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos
  • 원자재
  • Energy Electric Power LNG Natural Gas Oil Shipping
  • 길이
  • 03:31

The fallout from the conflict in Ukraine continues to dominate European markets, but in other highlights, the European Commission sets out policies to deal with high energy prices and freight rates for the Black Sea and Baltic Sea reach multi-year highs.

  • Oil markets seeking relief, sanctions clarity (00:15)
  • Ukraine conflict dominating European gas market (01:22)
  • Energy price crisis measures (02:02)
  • Dirty tanker freight rates reach multi-year highs (02:50)
전체 원고 보기

In this week's highlights: The fallout from the conflict in Ukraine continues to dominate European markets, but in other highlights, the European Commission sets out policies to deal with high energy prices and freight rates for the Black Sea and Baltic Sea reach multi-year highs.

But to start with oil, volatility is the order of the day, as Russia's Urals crude has been shunned by many companies, despite the granting of a temporary sanctions waiver for energy trading by the US Treasury.

The UK meanwhile is pushing for the idea of an international cap on Russian oil purchases, while oil giant BP has announced it is jettisoning its stake in Rosneft and the reserves that came with it. All of which could make the idea of strategic oil stock releases by governments more appealing.

In terms of Urals pricing, the differential between Urals and Dated Brent had already ballooned to levels last seen in 2005 in the previous week.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ producer group is also set to meet on Wednesday, of course including Russia.

This will surely be a more fraught affair than recent meetings that waved through the group's progressive easing of output cuts. The group now faces far more volatility, as well as likely internal differences over Russia's actions, as governments around the world pile on diplomatic pressure.

We will also be keeping a close eye this week on talks taking place in Vienna on the West's sanctions on Iran and a potential easing of oil export controls, which some would view as representing much needed relief.

In European gas, all eyes remain on Ukraine, with traders watching for potential disruption to gas transit.

So far, there has been no impact on Russian gas flows, but Ukraine's vast pipeline network that carries Russian gas to Europe remains vulnerable to potential damage during the military action, with Ukrainian gas transit company GTSOU last week saying it was operating its assets in "high-security" mode.

Any disruption to Russia gas transit via Ukraine would likely have a further big impact on the European market.

And that takes us to our social media question for the week: Do you think the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline could now sit unused indefinitely? Tweet us your thoughts using the hashtag #PlattsMM.

Today should bring clarification on which Russian banks are excluded from the SWIFT international payment messaging system under tough new financial sanctions announced over the weekend. EU and US officials were believed to be looking at how to exempt energy transactions, but talks were ongoing and energy sanctions remain on the table, according to the White House. A full ban on Russian banks using SWIFT would make it harder for European buyers of Russian oil and gas to process payments, potentially leading to declarations of force majeure on deliveries.

Meanwhile, the European Commission this week is expected to bring forward measures to help member states deal with an extended period of high gas prices. The package is likely to range from possible storage requirements via national regulation to using revenue from EU carbon allowance sales to cushion price shocks for industry and consumers.

And finally, in the tanker market, shipowners are demanding heavy premiums to sail in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea on the back of increased uncertainty in the two regions.

On February 25, S&P Global Platts assessed the Black Sea to Mediterranean route at worldscale 480, the highest on record according to Platts data.

Strong adjacent markets and bullish sentiment amongst shipowners, seeking compensation for the increased risk of sailing in those regions, are expected to keep rates firm going forward.

The Platts Atlas of Energy Transition is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future. You can explore the Atlas by visiting the address displayed on your screen.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a great week ahead!