The phaseout of fossil fuels is one of the most important themes for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), and also one of the most contentious. In the second of three videos, S&P Global Commodity Insights adds context on how the parties will approach this topic at the upcoming talks and what’s at stake.
Video 1 - COP28: The Challenge
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With COP28 fast approaching, the gap between the global ambition of keeping the 1.5-degree goal alive and governments’ climate actions is still considerable. At the conference, Parties will inevitably be called to address the phaseout of fossil fuels - a big sticking point - along with the deployment of zero-carbon alternatives and the expansion of renewable energy.
At COP26, countries agreed to the Glasgow Climate Pact, which called on countries to phase down unabated coal power. At COP27, India proposed to build on the language of the Glasgow Climate Pact and to include all fossil fuels, but this commitment never made it into the final text. Consensus around fossil fuel phaseout plans still seems distant. Several emerging and developing economies have either openly opposed the proposal or stayed silent. Developed nations, on the other hand, are more likely to support the provision since it aligns with their current decarbonization goals.
Still, barring a phasedown of unabated fossil fuels, it will be challenging to reach global emissions goals and will likely require extensive use of negative emissions technology. In fact, under any S&P Global Scenario or net-zero case, completely eliminating energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050 is not within reach.
For more on COP28 and the energy transition, visit spglobal.com/commodityinsights