No one has a crystal ball to see the future of commodities. But for those watching the oil industry, there are a couple of outlook reports due this week that could give indications of where the market could be headed. OPEC is expected to present its world oil outlook at the Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition, while the International Energy Agency is due to release its World Energy Outlook on November 14.
Still in oil, Vietnam will kick off its January trading cycle for sweet crude this week, with PetroVietnam expected to issue several spot tenders offering Chim Sao, Ruby and Heavy Bach Ho crudes for loading in the month.
In LNG, the Platts JKM is set to continue testing year-high levels this week as the peak winter trading season ramps up. The Platts JKM for December delivery LNG cargoes ended trading last week at $9.65/MMBtu.
In agriculture, Vietnam's feed corn market is starting to show signs of life after almost six months in the doldrums.
Agriculture associate editor Xiaojuan Gao talks about these and other factors that could move the commodities market this week.
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Video Transcript
This week's highlights: OPEC and the IEA to release outlook reports, LNG prices surge, and buying interest finally emerges in Vietnam’s feed corn market.
In oil, all eyes will be on Abu Dhabi this week, where oil ministers from several OPEC countries are gathering with CEOs from major oil companies for ADIPEC, the Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. OPEC will present its world oil outlook at the event, so watch for their thoughts on the state of the oil market and production policy direction.
It's a busy week for reports, with the International Energy Agency also due to release its World Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
In Asia, Vietnam will kick off its January trading cycle for sweet crude this week, with PetroVietnam expected to issue several spot tenders offering Chim Sao, Ruby and Heavy Bach Ho crudes for loading in the month.
Asian refiners' strong winter feedstock demand, coupled with healthy middle distillate and fuel oil margins, should support their spot differentials for January.
In LNG, the Platts JKM is set to continue testing year-high levels this week as the peak winter trading season ramps up. With oil prices surging past 64 dollars a barrel last week, LNG market players are watching to see if this will push LNG prices closer to the 10 dollars per MMBtu mark – a level not seen since January 2015.
In metals, China is due to announce the size of it alumina production cuts for winter on Wednesday. Australian alumina prices plunged 6 per cent last week and China's domestic prices fell 3.5 per cent amid speculation the cuts would not be extensive.
But will the cuts even be announced this week, how much output will be cut, and will prices rebound or fall further? What do you think? Share your thoughts on Twitter with #PlattsMM.
In agriculture, Vietnam's feed corn market is starting to show signs of life after almost six months in the doldrums. Buyers have starting looking for corn, soybean meal and feed wheat cargoes from South America for the first quarter of next year. And traders have reported a few deals.
In shipping, a flurry of cargoes is expected to hit the market this week as participants return to trading after an industry event in Dubai. This coincides with a rare convergence of Long Range one and two tanker rates at close to parity on the highly liquid Persian Gulf to Far East route.
Finally in thermal coal, Indonesian coal prices are under pressure this week from restrictions on coal imports at some ports in China and talk of some Chinese buyers backing out of shipments. Although a petcoke ban in three states in northern India could spur some demand, traders expect prices to remain under pressure this week from bearish sentiment.
That's it for now. Thanks for starting off your Monday with us, and have a great week ahead!