观看： Market Movers Europe, May 16-20: Oil demand outlook unclear as ban on Russian oil looms

In this week's highlights: the European Parliament's environment committee is set to vote on proposed carbon emission reforms, supply disruptions continue to concern the gas industry, and high-octane blend stock premiums soar to record highs ahead of the summer driving season in the region.

But first, global oil markets remain acutely focused on the supply and demand-side indicators in the coming week, as Russia's war in Ukraine puts more barrels at risk while COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the world's biggest oil importer, cloud the demand picture.

EU member states are expected to reach an agreement over a planned ban on Russian oil imports in a move that would lend additional support to oil prices. The devil will likely be in the detail though and a deal on a phased ban will include carve-outs and extensions for some members. The sanctions may also water down attempts to block EU shipping from carrying Russian oil outside the bloc.

On the demand side, markets are watching for new economic indicators from the impact of growing Chinese lockdown while, in the US, record pump prices and soaring inflation are expected to trigger a slowdown in demand for key transport fuels.

Markets will also be watching for fresh direction from the Saudi energy minister who is due to speak at a conference in Bahrain early in the week.

Carbon markets will have all eyes on Brussels as the European Parliament's environment committee is set to vote on Tuesday on proposed reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

As you can see in this chart, carbon prices surged in 2021 as the market began to factor in a tighter supply of allowances in future. While only a waypoint in the long road to final legislation, the market may show increased price volatility around the vote, as the committee's position becomes clearer ahead of a full parliament plenary vote in early June.

In European gas, concerns over Russian exports continue to weigh on the market, with new uncertainty over transit flows via Ukraine and the ongoing risk that more countries could have their supply suspended or disrupted.

Deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria are already halted and, as more payments become due under the terms of Moscow's new ruble-based mechanism, it remains to be seen if other buyers could suffer the same fate.

Flows via Ukraine are also very much in focus after Kyiv declared force majeure on Russian gas flows at a key entry point, with Russian gas giant Gazprom so far appearing not to be diverting flows into an alternative route.

The EU, meanwhile, this week will publish more details of its REPowerEU strategy to cut Russian gas imports, which includes plans for 50 Bcm more LNG imports, higher biomethane production, and energy efficiency measures.

And that takes us to the social media question of the week: Does natural gas have a future as a bridge between high-carbon intensity fuels and green sources in Europe? Tweet us your thoughts.

Wednesday's REPowerEU strategy is relevant for the power sector too, with both short and long-term initiatives in the spotlight. Immediate relief on power bills has been an ongoing priority for European member states, but all eyes will be on the EC's take on more aggressive interventions in wholesale power price formation, and the risk of market distortion.

Interest is also focused on how planning blockages could be lifted in order to hit a 45% renewable power target by 2030, and how renewable hydrogen production can be accelerated to ensure material displacement of Russian molecules before 2030.

The Platts Atlas of Energy Transition is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future. You can explore the Atlas by visiting the address displayed on your screen.

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