EU can reach 90% stock level by end-summer in all demand scenarios: ENTSOG

The EU would be able to rebuild stocks to 90% of capacity -- or even 100% -- this summer under all demand scenarios given the high starting point of storage fill, grid operator group ENTSOG said in its annual summer outlook.

But ENTSOG warned that lower LNG imports this summer and a potential halt in the remaining Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU would make it more difficult to reach 90% stock levels without demand-side measures.

Under EU rules designed to improve gas supply security, member states must fill their storage sites to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1.

This was achieved well ahead of target in 2023, with EU stocks still filled to 59% of capacity by the end of March 2024 due to mild weather and demand curtailments.

In the summer outlook published April 16, ENTSOG said the fall in gas consumption -- a result of the mild winter, high prices and demand reduction measures -- had contributed to the record volume of gas in storage.

European gas prices fell back from their record highs in 2022 through 2023. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the TTF month-ahead price at an average of Eur35.33/MWh ($37.6/MWh) last winter (October 2023-March 2024).

"The European gas network can enable market participants to reach 90% stock level (and even 100%) in all underground gas storage facilities by the end of the summer season 2024 in all demand scenario cases," ENTSOG said.

ENTSOG also said additional storage flexibility could also be secured this summer by storing additional volumes in Ukrainian storage facilities.

But, it said, in the event of limited LNG supply availability -- pegged at around 59 Bcm -- during summer could mean demand-side measures would be needed to reach the 90% target across Europe.

In the event of low LNG availability for Europe and no pipeline supplies from Russia, it might be not possible to meet demand and reach 90% of storage fill by the start of next winter without demand-side measures, ENTSOG said.

"Europe would need to secure more LNG and also possibly trigger demand side measures to assure winter preparedness," it said.

Russian flows

Russian deliveries into Europe by pipeline are limited to flows via Ukraine entering at the Sudzha point on the Russia-Ukraine border and via the European string of TurkStream.

ENTSOG said the EU's gas infrastructure, including new projects commissioned last year, could reduce the dependence on Russian supply due to enhanced cooperation and that stocks could fill without Russian pipeline gas.

"Considering the high level of storage [...] as well as assuming availability of other sources of gas supply, it is possible to satisfy demand and fill storages at the end of the injection season to the desirable level without using Russian pipeline gas," it said.

"Even in the case of full pipeline Russian supply disruption, cooperation between the countries could allow for efficient injection during the summer 2024 and preparation for winter."

ENTSOG also gave its first outlook for winter 2024/25, saying it would be important to maintain storage stocks at an "adequate level" until the end of the winter.

But, it said, given a stock level of 59% on April 1, the EU's injection and withdrawal capacities combined with the supply flexibility of imports was sufficient to cover demand and reach 59% fullness at the end of the next winter "in all EU countries".

"In case of full disruption of Russian pipeline supplies during winter, additional measures might be needed to save significant volumes of the gas for the end of the season and to avoid risk of demand curtailment in case of high demand situations."