Assistir: Market Movers Asia, Jan 17-21: Omicron hits mobility in China, India; Asian coal prices on the rise

This week: Uncertainty persists in the Asian thermal coal market amid Indonesia's coal export ban, data releases from China will be keenly watched for trends in key steel-consuming sectors, and nature-based carbon credit segment is turning bullish on tight supply and a price uptick.

But first, oil market participants will closely track the emergence of fresh COVID-19 cases in China ahead of the Chinese New Year and Winter Olympics. Traders said new cases are likely to impact the country's transportation fuel demand in January and February. Beijing, which is set to host the Winter Olympics, has announced plans to suspend flights immediately from any destination where confirmed COVID-19 cases are detected. While China's crude imports rose 20 percent year on year in December, Asia's biggest oil-consuming nation ended 2021 with total crude imports lower than in 2020, according to official data.

Omicron has impacted mobility in India as well. Domestic flight numbers in early January were lower than December levels as a spike in COVID-19 cases offset pent-up demand typically witnessed during the holiday season. Though the Indian government has not imposed lockdowns, state-level restrictions on mobility like night and weekend curfews have led to a drop in mobility. Going forward, Platts Analytics expects India's oil demand to slow further in Q1 amid rising COVID-19 cases.

Next up, in the Asian thermal coal market, uncertainty persists due to Indonesia's ban on coal exports. The Southeast Asian nation released only 18 thermal coal loaded vessels last week. Some vessels were denied permission after the owners failed to meet their domestic obligations.

Coal prices of other origins are expected to extend gains. Market participants said offers for Australian high-ash coal are likely to be on the higher side, as demand pours in the absence of Indonesian coal. Indian buyers, however, are expected to keep to the sidelines due to high prices, and procure domestic stocks from ports.

That brings us to our social media question for the week: Do you think Asian thermal coal prices will continue to rise owing to Indonesia's coal export ban? Share your thoughts on Twitter and LinkedIn with the hashtag PlattsMM.

Moving to steel, China will release December steel production numbers, along with property and infrastructure data today. Markets will keenly watch out for data on property sales, investment, and new home starts. Traders said steel markets will remain under pressure if the property sector shows no sign of improvement.

Though industry sources expect crude steel output to rebound in December, China's full-year steel output for 2021 could drop by nearly 40 million metric tons from 2020 levels.

In nonferrous metals, markets will be watching China's lithium prices, which hit new highs recently. Lithium carbonate prices in China hit an all-time high of 315,000 yuan per metric ton on January 13. Sharp gains over the last one year in lithium prices have been backed by China's accelerated electric vehicle sales, as the country posted solid electric vehicle sale numbers for 2021.

Strong EV sales in China have also partly contributed to copper price gains.

Last week, copper prices crossed the 10,000 dollar per metric ton mark for the first time in three months on the London Metal Exchange. Markets will keep an eye on lithium and copper prices amid the demand rush and low stocks.

And finally, with the holiday season over, activity has returned to carbon markets. The nature-based carbon segment has been witnessing a bullish trend with Platts CNC gaining in the week. Supply is still tight for avoidance and removal credits as many market players continue to hold on to their inventory in the hope that prices will rise further.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us. Have a great week ahead!