Author: Ingentium Limited | Number of pages: 111 | PDF Report

African Swine Fever (ASF) is currently the most important threat to the pig industry worldwide. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs, that has become a serious global threat to the pig sector and related industries. It is listed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) as a notifiable disease. ASF is not a zoonotic disease and thus does not pose a risk to public health.

Until 2007, outbreaks were limited to Africa and the Mediterranean island of Sardinia. In 2007 the disease entered Georgia and has been spreading into Europe and now Asia where it has been infecting both domestic and wild pigs. It has since gone on to rapidly spread across most of Asia, leaving a devastating trail in China. In 2018, China reported the first case of ASF. China has the world's largest pig population, and has since seen its pig population reduced by half. This has led to supply and demand shortages not only in China but globally. The disease is now present in Greece and spreading across Indonesia. The report is completely up to date on the global ASF trajectory as of mid-February 2020.

There is currently no effective vaccine and no treatment for ASF. Control is based on containing the outbreaks through biosecurity measures and the stamping out of infected and in-contact animals. This report explores the likely development of treatments and their costs going forward. A prompt diagnosis is critical to restrain and control the disease. The Diagnostics Review section provides a summary of virus detection tests and antibody detection tests.

It is estimated that the value of an ASF Asian market vaccine over a period of four years is likely be in the region of US$112 million. There has undoubtedly been an increase in patenting activity with respect to ASF related technologies filed globally over the past 10 years. Bearing in mind that patent filing data may not be fully disclosed for applications filed in 2019, the average increase of filings year-on-year appears to be circa 13%. A mixture of both public and private-sector organisations appears to be applicants/assignees (the owners) on ASF-related patents. Notable patent filings and related transactions are discussed in further detail within the report.

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This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.