Special Report - Crude Oil Turmoil

Crude Oil Turmoil and the Global Impact on Petrochemicals:
Navigating an uncertain course back to "normal" Comprehensive Review of implications of "V", "U" and "L"-shaped Crude Oil recovery trajectories on the Petrochemical Industry

How will you respond to different crude oil recovery trajectories?
Do you need to know the turning points & sign posts to look for as the crude oil market recovers to make better business decisions?

Crude oil prices have been very volatile and will remain so. But as these prices recover to early-2014, the recovery could happen over the short ("V" shape), medium ("U" shape), or long term ("L" shape). Each case reaches a low crude oil price that significantly changes the behavior of the petrochemical industry. Each case examines a different combination of possible oil market supply/demand situations and economic growth trajectories associated with the low crude oil price forecast and its recovery profile. Which companies will be "winners" and "losers" in each recovery situation? This study helps petrochemical companies plan for three different oil price recovery cases, discussing the associated risks and opportunities and addressing these key questions:

• How will the "V", "U" and "L" shape oil price recoveries trigger changes in participant behavior?
• What are the implications for key value chains and major products?
• What regions, value chains, and producers are most affected? What will their reactions be?
• What are the turning points associated with an alternative case?
• What options do industry participants have to mitigate risks associated with low crude oil prices?

Crude Oil Turmoil and the Global Impact on Petrochemicals
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Value chains covered:

For each of these value chain, IHS Markit examines the impact on the competitive economics, regional operating rates, supply, demand and trade for each of the three crude oil price recovery profiles.

• Ethylene and polyethylene
• Propylene and polypropylene
• Benzene, styrene, xylenes, p-xylene
• Chlor-alkali and PVC
• Methanol and derivatives

Special Report - C₅ Value Chain Study

C₅ Value Chain Study: From Cracker to Key C₅ Derivative Applications for Isoprene, DCPD and Piperylene

The C₅ stream provides a link between the cracker and a number of downstream industries. Over the past 3 years there have been significant additions to splitter capacities in Asia. New announced capacities for crude C₅ derivatives are under construction now. Under volatile energy conditions, producers need to add maximum value to every stream the cracker produces.

These will also impact the buyers and sellers in the entire C₅ value chain business especially the unsaturated polyester (UPR), Hydocarbon Resins (HCR), Isoprene and its derivatives markets. Making strategic decisions and identifying the growing end-use markets and geographies will be critical.

• What is the rivalry and competition for the C₅ stream and the outlook for those individual markets?
• How does the cracker feedstock slate impact C₅ stream availability and key component content?
• What are the trade flows for the derivatives and how are they impacted by the crude oil deflation?
• What is the outlook for Isoprene supply situation and impact to utilization rates?
• What my individual competitive position relative to other consumers from the C₅ derivative stream?
• What is the potential for industry consolidation?
• How will it impact my strategy with suppliers, regions and customers?

C₅ Value Chain Study: From Cracker to Key C₅ Derivative Applications for Isoprene, DCPD and Piperylene
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This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.