Crude oil futures were stable to lower in mid-morning Asian trade Aug. 8, with prices continuing to consolidate in a narrow range as a strong US jobs report added to uncertainty over the outlook for oil demand.
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Cadastre-se agoraAt 10:12 am Singapore time (0212 GMT), the ICE October Brent futures contract was down 25 cents/b (0.26%) from the previous close at $94.67/b, while the NYMEX September light sweet crude contract was 20 cents/b (0.22%) lower at $88.81/b.
The US added 528,000 jobs in July -- more than double market expectations -- while the unemployment rate ticked lower to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5%, Bureau of Labor Statistics data released late Aug. 5 showed.
Analysts said the sterling report will further cloud the outlook for oil demand, with earlier fears of a US recession now somewhat dispelled as the labor market remains exceedingly robust.
Nonetheless, the strong jobs growth will further heighten the case for the US Federal Reserve to continue on its path of outsized interest rate hikes for the remainder of this year. Investors are pricing in another 75 basis point hike for the Fed's September meeting after a similar-sized hike last month.
"The huge outperformance in the US July job report drove markets to lean toward a 75 basis-point hike in the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting with a 70% probability," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an Aug. 8 note.
Still, analysts said it will take more than one optimistic job reading to overturn the malaise that has gripped oil markets of late. Increasingly bearish sentiment saw oil plunging by $10/b last week in what market watchers said was an overreaction to weak PMI figures from the US and China, as well as reports of falling US gasoline demand.
"We are grasping at straws here as traders still do not have a quantitative or qualitative answer, beyond the fact that sentiment has turned negative, to explain this month's dive in the plunge tank," SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes said.
"Trying to anticipate sentiment shifts rather than relying on macro data for trend analysis makes it difficult to estimate where prices will stabilize and how soon. Still, the market structure seems more sensitive to bad news than good news for now," he added.
Dubai crude swaps and intermonth spreads were higher in mid-morning trade in Asia Aug. 8 from the previous close.
The October Dubai swap was pegged at $88.13/b at 10 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), up 74 cents/b (0.85%) from the Aug. 5 Asian market close.
The September-October Dubai swap intermonth spread was pegged at $2.33/b at 10 am, up 4 cents/b over the same period, and the October-November intermonth spread was pegged at $1.47/b, up 4 cents/b.
The October Brent/Dubai EFS was pegged at $6.82/b, down 26 cents/b.