The ongoing El Nino phenomenon has started to weaken and may gradually dissipate during the Southern Hemisphere's autumn, which lasts till June, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said Jan. 24, which could lift output in the next crop season.
Não está cadastrado?
Receba e-mails diários com alertas, notas ao assinante; personalize sua experiência.
Cadastre-se agora"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the Southern Hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.
A gradual drop in the intensity of El Nino may boost plantation and crop yield in the next crop season, market participants said.
An El Nino event increases the likelihood of wetter conditions in East Africa and East Asia, and drier conditions, including drought, in West Africa, southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern areas of South America and Central America.
Australia
** New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are expected to experience light rainfall over the next two weeks, the bureau said. However, some southern parts of Western Australia are likely to see below average showers next week, it added.
** Light rainfall may boost the moisture content of the wheat crop, traders said.
** The continued rise in temperatures in Western Australia is likely to boost protein content in the wheat crop, the traders added.
** The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast wheat output for marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) at around 26.2 million mt, down 34% year on year, which is expected to weigh on exports.
** Platts assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat lower on the day at $288/mt Jan. 25, up $2/mt on the day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.
EU
** Scattered snowfall is likely over northern parts of France and Germany during the next two weeks, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said Jan. 24.
** Most parts of Europe are also expected to see slightly higher-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, the agency said.
** There could be some rainfall, which may lead to a rise in moisture content in the planted wheat crop and may delay the upcoming corn sowing, according to traders.
** The precipitation may lead to a rise in moisture content in the planted wheat crop, and may delay the upcoming corn sowing, traders said.
** Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $239/mt on Jan. 24, down 50 cents/mt on the day, according to S&P Global data.
US
** The central plains, western Corn Belt and areas in the eastern region received some precipitation over the week, while dry weather prevailed in the north-central region, southern plains and much of the Southwest, the US Department of Agriculture said Jan. 24.
** Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding is expected in portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf states over the coming weekend, it said.
** The Mississippi River at Vicksburg recorded a gauge reading of 24.72 feet on Jan. 24, one of the highest levels in the last 30 days, while the water level at Memphis was recorded up at 8.24 feet on Jan. 24, easing logistical concerns and increasing freight costs for grain exports, the US Geological Survey said.
** Platts assessed CIF New Orleans Corn at $202.85/mt, up $2.65/mt on the day, according to S&P Global data Jan. 24.
Brazil
** Water levels in the Rio Negro River basin reached 20.85 m on Jan. 23, recovering from the lowest-on-record levels in previous months, according to the Port of Manaus.
** Meanwhile, rain is expected to exceed 100 mm in some areas of Piaul and Bahia, favoring the sowing and development of first corn crops, Conab said.
** In the central provinces, intense rains will continue to benefit soil moisture and the development of first crops, it added.
** Platts assessed Brazil corn FOB Santos at $208.75/mt on Jan. 24, up $1.08 /mt on the day.
Argentina
** Rising temperatures, along with precipitation over the Western and Northeastern margin of the agricultural area in the country, continued for much of last week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Jan. 22.
** North winds causing high temperatures in the north and west of the agricultural area are expected this week, with moderate readings toward the Atlantic Coast, BAGE said.
** The condition of corn in the core region improved due to rain and there is optimism around achieving record production, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.
** Platts assessed Argentina corn FOB Up River at $200.20/mt on Jan. 24, up $2.66/mt on the day.
Malaysia, Indonesia
** Heavy rain in the world's largest palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia will cause a significant dip in output during January, industry agencies and analysts said.
** The Malaysian meteorological department has issued severe-level continuous rain warnings for six states. Similarly, Indonesia's meteorology agency has issued early warnings of heavy rainfall and strong winds this week.
** The Malaysian Palm Oil Association estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production fell by 15.6% in Jan. 1-20 compared to the same period in December as rains impede harvesting and logistics.
** The benchmark palm oil contract on Malaysia's commodity exchange was up 1.1% at MR3,992/mt ($844.15/mt) Jan. 24, its highest in two months, due to supply concerns.
** Platts assessed crude palm oil FOB Indonesia at $880.50/mt Jan. 24, unchanged on the day, S&P Global data showed.