In this week’s Market Movers Asia with Samyak Pandey:
- Australian wheat sowing in focus amid fading El Nino
- India continues to grapple with bunker supply shortages
- Taiwan earthquake likely to impact oil demand
- China’s compliance carbon price stays at high level
- Asian thermal coal prices likely to fall
- Muted demand in Indian steel markets likely to persist
This week, Australia's wheat planting season is in focus as the fading El Nino raises hopes for higher crop production in the upcoming season.
The climatic shift follows a challenging marketing year in 2023-24 season, when the El Nino phenomenon reduced the wheat harvest by 36% on the year.
In Asian oil markets, participants are keeping an eye on any potential impact from the earthquake in Taiwan.
The incident may affect oil demand on the island as economic activities have been interrupted.
In shipping, the market is cautiously monitoring interest in very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gasoil, after inquiries reduced amid tight supplies and uncertainty around price movements.
However, bunker fuel demand rose nearly 30% on the quarter in Indian ports like Mumbai, Kochi, and Gujarat due to Red Sea disruptions.
Asian thermal coal prices are likely to fall further in the coming days on low demand and high stockpiles in China and India.
On the supply side, Indonesian producers are extending their Ramadan holidays to manage output rates and prevent a significant price drop.
In the Chinese compliance carbon market, some participants have started hoarding in anticipation of a further price rise, as stricter penalties are set to be imposed in May for non-compliance.
There are also plans to expand the market to include aluminum, cement and steel sectors this year.
In metals, demand for hot-rolled coil and rebar in India may slow through April and May due to general elections, with prices expected to remain largely stable.
I’m Samyak Pandey, thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.