The risk environment – global security, energy trade-offs, supply chain interdependence, and labor market reshuffling – will continue to underpin the economic outlook for 2023. Mild recessions appear likely in Europe and North America, while Asia Pacific (APAC) and other emerging markets are likely to skirt recession.
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Customer LoginsEconomic Dissonance
The twin drivers of fiscal policy responses to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock have produced inflation rates at multi-decade highs. Central banks have sought to slow demand and achieve better alignment with supply by raising interest rates and reducing asset holdings, ending the monetary accommodation in place since the Financial Crisis of 2008. How governments will adapt their policies to this unbalanced economic landscape— through income support, intervention in energy markets, or deficit reduction--are key questions to watch for 2023.
The outlook outside of Europe and North America will be brighter in the year ahead driven particularly by sustained moderate growth in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. With economic indicators pointing in multiple directions, variability across regions, industries and sectors in 2023 will be shaped by developing geopolitical risks and policy shifts.
2023 Risk Outlook
Global security unsettled
A number of unresolved conflicts and competitions will be sources of risk in 2023, filtering into the global economic outlook.
Energy trade-offs
With energy security back atop the agenda following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, countries will be balancing 2023 fiscal priorities against a new impetus to accelerate their energy transitions.
Precarious supply chains
An expected easing in supply chain disruptions in the first half of 2023 remains vulnerable to labor and resource shortages including critical technologies and critical minerals.
Reshuffling labor markets
Labor markets are in transition as demand overruns supply, tilting leverage towards workers across major markets.
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Experts
Ken Wattret
Ken oversees global economic forecasting and analysis and supports a broad spectrum of corporate and financial clients. Ken has worked as an economist in the financial sector since the early 1990s including for HSBC and BNP Paribas where he was the head of market economics for the euro area. Prior to joining IHS Markit (now part of S&P Global) as Chief European Economist in 2018, Ken was a Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard, an independent research provider. He is a well-known commentator in financial media.Ken received his honors degree in economics from the University of Sheffield and holds post-graduate qualifications in finance.
Thea Fourie
Thea leads Sub-Saharan Economics and Country Risk analysis for S&P Global Market Intelligence. Her 30-year career has been devoted to macro-econometric modeling and macro-economic analysis of the Sub-Saharan region, with a focus on markets including South Africa, Nigeria, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Central African Republic and Benin. South Africa and Nigeria are part of our proprietary Global Link Model - an econometric model covering 95% of global GDP - where she takes responsibility for these two countries.Thea leads a team of 12 regional experts responsible for forecasting macroeconomic, country and sovereign risk outlooks across the region. She covers major developments on the African continent through strategic research and analysis, supporting clients globally on horizon scanning, portfolio management, market entry and risk mitigation. Prior to joining S&P Global, Thea was a financial economist and econometrician at ING Barings, BOE NatWest Securities, and ABSA Bank, specializing in macro and financial economic analysis of the South African economy.Thea is based in Pretoria, and fluent in both Afrikaans and English.
Bree Neff
Bree has worked for the Economics and Country Risk segment of S&P Global Market Intelligence and its predecessors, including Global Insight, since 2007. Bree has experience forecasting for over 20 different economies in the region at different stages of economic development. She is a previous winner of the Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy Award for her 2013 and 2016 Australia macroeconomic forecasts, 2016 Indonesia forecasts, and 2018 Malaysia forecasts.Bree earned a master's degree in international economics and finance from the International Business School at Brandeis University and a bachelor's degree in economics and French from Colorado State University, both United States. She is fluent in English and French.
Jamil Naayem
Jamil has expertise in various Middle Eastern economies, and primarily covers Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iran. He is an experienced forecaster and is also responsible for the economic and sovereign risk analysis of those countries. Jamil regularly briefs clients on Middle Eastern economies and actively contributes to strategic reports on various topics of interest.Prior to that, he was head of the markets research unit at Bank Audi sal, a Lebanon-based regional bank operating in various countries of the MENA region, Turkey, and Western Europe. During his 17-year tenure at the bank, he covered various countries of presence, with extensive economic and sectoral analysis provided to management and clients. Jamil was also pivotal in developing fixed income research at the bank, covering MENA debt markets with a particular focus on the GCC region. In addition, he regularly contributed to strategic reports to the bank's management analyzing economic and banking operating conditions across countries of presence.Jamil is a Lebanese national. He earned master's degrees in finance from ESCP Business School (Paris) and Ecole Superieure des Affaires (ESA, Beirut) (2008-09), and a master's degree in economics (specializing in economic policy) from USJ in Lebanon (2003). Throughout his career, he obtained various management certificates from reputable regional and international training institutions, anchored around change management, people management, managerial leadership, advanced negotiation skills, and conflict management and resolution, in addition to various securities and financial regulations certificates. Jamil is fluent in English, French, and Arabic.
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