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Economics & Country Risk Research and Analysis

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Featured
Blog Sep 16, 2020

Weekly Pricing Pulse: Cracks start to appear, but commodity prices continue rising
Blog Sep 16, 2020

Leveraging text as data: Tracking economic recovery from COVID19 in the US
Blog Sep 15, 2020

Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world: A fragmented world
Blog Sep 11, 2020

Creditor response in sub-Saharan Africa
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  1. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Cracks start to appear, but commodity prices continue rising

    16 September 2020 Mr. William May

    Some indices roll over after strong rallies, perhaps signalling a pause in the commodities rebound

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  2. Leveraging text as data: Tracking economic recovery from COVID19 in the US

    16 September 2020 Mateusz Mynarski Dr. Marie Lechler

    Our experts utilize novel data collection to track economics recovery (among other things)  via high frequency signals from news articles

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  3. Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world: A fragmented world

    15 September 2020 Keerti Rajan John Raines, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. Anna Boyd

    What does it mean for geopolitical security when three key global players - the US, China and European Union (EU) - turn inwards to focus on...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Scenario Planning
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
  4. Creditor response in sub-Saharan Africa

    11 September 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    While emergency financing from the IMF to cope with the direct and ancillary effects of COVID-19 are agreed to, what about additional supports...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  5. Capital Markets Weekly: Debt and equity issuance remaining strong despite technology-oriented equity market correction

    10 September 2020 Brian Lawson

    Record Asian share sales and multiple bond issuance successes indicate that risk appetite remains strong despite US tech-sector correction.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  6. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Sharp sell-off in equities markets not mirrored in commodities

    09 September 2020 Mr. William May

    An overheating equity market corrected sharply last week but all commodities, save oil, were unaffected, marching higher

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  7. WTO leadership race

    03 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    The World Trade Organization (WTO) must select a shortlist of candidates to replace Ricardo Azevêdo. Who will be backed and what are their policy...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Economic Risk
  8. Weekly Pricing Pulse: A relaxed inflation target from the Fed gives commodities fresh boost

    02 September 2020 Mr. William May

    Markets focus on the accommodative Fed rather than growing second waves of COVID-19

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  9. US Monthly GDP Index for July 2020

    01 September 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 1.9% in July.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  10. Capital Markets Weekly: Germany’s Green Bond debut imminent, boosting expanding ESG sector

    01 September 2020

    Germany gave more details of its Green Bond debut in September: media reports suggest this will be a 10-year benchmark for up to EUR6 billion....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  11. COVID-19 justifies pre-existing banking policies in mainland China and India

    31 August 2020 Angus Lam

    New banking policies at play for both Mainland China and India

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  12. Analyzing US equity market peaks

    27 August 2020 Brian Lawson

    How have financial markets been affected by the combination of expansionary fiscal policy and quantitative easing and divergent sectoral performance?...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  13. Capital Markets Weekly: Oman follows Egypt in accessing loan market while bond sales continue indicating duration appetite

    27 August 2020 Brian Lawson

    Media reports claim Oman raised USD2 billion in one-year bridge financing, while five hybrid deals this week indicated a strong “duration bid”....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  14. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Continuing signs of recovery lifts commodities

    26 August 2020 Mr. William May John Mothersole

    Chinese stimulus, a softening US dollar and easing COVID-19 containment measures give buyers the green light to keep going

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  15. The COVID-19 pandemic will hurt long-term economic growth

    24 August 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE

    While it may be a little early to fully quantify the long-term economic impact of the pandemic, S&P Global estimates that by 2030 the level of...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  16. Capital Markets Weekly: S+P 500 reaches new record

    21 August 2020 Brian Lawson

    The S+P 500 index reached an all-time high alongside recent IPOs displaying exceptionally strong performance.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  17. Brexit and the UK economic impact

    21 August 2020 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.

    new Brexit uncertainties are sounding on the risk radar, namely whether the 11-month transition period is sufficient to deliver an agreement...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  18. Country risk month ahead: September 2020

    20 August 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in September from elections to trade summits and beyond.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  19. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Momentum carries commodity prices higher, but demand doubts increase

    18 August 2020 Mr. William May

    Bullish Chinese data early in the week was offset by rising COVID-19 restrictions, a breakdown in US stimulus negotiations and disappointing...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  20. Capital Markets Weekly: US high-grade issuance establishes new record alongside record-low corporate pricings

    14 August 2020 Brian Lawson

    US investment grade supply during 2020 has reached USD1.336 trillion, beating the prior full-year record in under eight months.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  21. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities price gains find a new gear, rising strongly across sectors

    12 August 2020 Mr. William May

    Volatility returns with commodities jumping

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  22. Capital Markets Weekly: Argentina and Ecuador successfully progressing debt restructuring

    07 August 2020 Brian Lawson

    Ecuador’s bondholders overwhelmingly accepted its debt restructuring proposals while Argentina has agreed a marginally revised deal with key...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  23. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities push higher, but with less gusto

    05 August 2020 Mr. William May

    Following a pause in the commodity price rebound last week, the MPI nudged higher, but sluggish demand growth will continue to be a drag

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  24. US Monthly GDP Index for June 2020

    03 August 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 5.0% in June.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  25. Capital Markets Weekly: Issuance quietens reflecting European/US vacation seasons

    30 July 2020 Brian Lawson

    Despite seasonally-quieter conditions, a large Australia syndication and a Hong Kong bank AT1 deal have reconfirmed long-duration demand.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  26. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices finally pause following multi-month climb

    30 July 2020 Thomas McCartin

    The 11-week stretch of commodity price increases ends amid a diplomatic spat

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  27. Country risk month ahead: August 2020

    27 July 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in August from elections to debt restructuring and beyond.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
  28. Country risk scores quarterly: July 2020

    24 July 2020 Justin Valentino Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Countries/territories for which our Country Risk scores have been changed significantly over the last quarter.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Legal Risk
    • Taxation Risk
    • Economic Risk
  29. Capital Markets Weekly: Latin American debt restructurings at risk of stand-off with investors 

    23 July 2020 Brian Lawson

    Both Argentina and Ecuador are facing problems to agree restructurings with their creditors, increasing the risk of “hard defaults”.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  30. State-level employment impact of COVID-19

    23 July 2020 Karl Kuykendall

    US Regional Economic Outlook: Northeast to take longest to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, South faces most acute downside risk given...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  31. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rise for eleventh straight week

    22 July 2020 Mr. William May

    Encouraging Chinese data and a softer dollar lifts commodity prices for an 11th consecutive week as policymakers weigh further stimulus

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  32. What can we learn from the Swedish approach to COVID-19?

    22 July 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.

    Sweden has pursued a fundamentally different strategy in responding to the COVID-19 virus compared with other Western European countries. It...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  33. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market issuers continue pushing debt maturity threshold

    17 July 2020 Brian Lawson

    A fourth emerging market borrower is now seeking hybrid debt, amidst multiple long and ultra-long dated issuance within the asset class.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  34. Weekly Pricing Pulse: How far can commodities keep rising?

    15 July 2020 Mr. William May

    A tenth consecutive weekly gain in our Materials Price Index (MPI) leaves the MPI down just 9% in 2020 as capacity closures raise materials price...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  35. Rising COVID-19 virus infection rates have increased the risk of a W-shaped economic cycle

    15 July 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE

    Our global economics flash for July 2020. While the worst is probably behind us, the global recovery remains weak and subject to further downside...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  36. Capital Markets Weekly: Successful emerging market bank issuance continues to indicate improving risk climate

    13 July 2020 Brian Lawson

    In recent days, three emerging market banks sold debt, including an AT1 deal for Mexico’s Banorte, while China Bohai Bank raised equity.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  37. Capital Markets Weekly: Ecuador and Argentina move closer to debt restructuring deals

    09 July 2020 Brian Lawson

    Ecuador has agreed debt restructuring with around half its bondholders while Argentina has significantly narrowed the gap with its creditors

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  38. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities V-shaped recovery continues

    08 July 2020 Mr. William May

    A better than expected US jobs report and good June Purchasing Managers data offers cheer but growing COVID-19 case counts in the Americas presents...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  39. US Monthly GDP Index for May 2020

    08 July 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 4.1% in May

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  40. USMCA Mexico effects

    06 July 2020 Johanna Marris

    The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement came into force on 1 July, replacing the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  41. Pakistan government coalition instability

    25 June 2020 Asad Ali

    Government-military relations in Pakistan deteriorate over COVID-19, increasing likelihood of PM being replaced or ruling coalition collapsing...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Coronavirus
  42. Dominican Republic election amid COVID-19 spread

    25 June 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB

    Dominican Republic election likely despite COVID-19-virus spread; tourism and transport and energy infrastructure new government key priorities...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Coronavirus
  43. Capital Markets Weekly: Sizeable US equity supply further indicates market consolidation

    25 June 2020 Brian Lawson

    Heavy US equity issuance, including a USD14.8 billion placement by T-Mobile US, took 2020 US share placement volumes to over USD100 billion.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  44. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Accelerating case count fails to dent commodities

    24 June 2020 Mr. William May

    COVID-19 cases rose more rapidly in certain areas of the US, India and Brazil last week spooking financial markets, but commodity prices continued...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  45. Bank of England’s MPC expands government bond-buying program

    23 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ

    We had anticipated that the Bank of England would expand its bond-buying scheme by GBP100 billion (USD124 billion), but it was at the lower end...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  46. African Development Bank governance reforms

    18 June 2020 Theo Acheampong, PhD

    Investigations into AfDB president’s suspected misconduct indicates growing multilateral and bilateral creditor rivalry, and likely governance...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
  47. Capital Markets Weekly: New Zealand syndication highlights debt pressure on stronger borrowers

    18 June 2020 Brian Lawson

    On 15 June, New Zealand syndicated NZD7 billion of 2024 debt, doubling its prior record in April: Belarus and Honduras also successfully sold...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  48. EU-UK Brexit Negotiations

    17 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ Jan Gerhard

    UK’s plan not to prolong post-Brexit transition makes interim arrangements initially more likely than finalised EU deal

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  49. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rise strongly again

    17 June 2020 Mr. William May

    Commodity prices continue to surge on improved manufacturing demand and investor interest

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  50. Capital Markets Weekly: African supply reopens successfully with sovereign conditions improving

    16 June 2020 Brian Lawson

    During the last week, two borrowers – Africa Finance Corp and Helios Towers – successfully reopened the market for sub-Saharan African debt

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  51. The deepest global recession in 75 years will also likely be the shortest on record

    16 June 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE

    Even with the beginnings of a recovery in place, the carnage from this pandemic and the lockdowns can only be described as horrific.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  52. Capital Markets Weekly: Successful sovereign issuance rush further confirms potency of ECB’s PEPP

    12 June 2020 Brian Lawson

    Ten European sovereign issuers successfully sold debt this week after the ECB expanded its PEPP program by EUR600 billion.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  53. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity market recovery accelerates

    10 June 2020 Mr. William May

    Commodity prices surged higher on supply side disruptions and optimism over demand

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  54. Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world – Scenarios for 2025

    09 June 2020 Richard Jackson Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D. Karim El Assir Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world – Scenarios for 2025

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Scenario Planning
    • Coronavirus
  55. Which sectors will be hardest hit by the fall-out from containment measures?

    04 June 2020 Braden Muhl

    Few industries have avoided harm from the impact of COVID-19 and the resulting containment measures. Who is most impacted and who will grow in...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  56. Capital Markets Weekly: Hungary and Deutsche Bank debut in Green Bond sector

    04 June 2020 Brian Lawson

    Hungary and Deutsche Bank completed successful Green Bond debuts this week, highlighting the ongoing long-term growth of ESG funding.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  57. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities focus on the partial relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions

    03 June 2020 Mr. William May

    Markets breathe a sigh of relief that President Trump's press conference did not contain even harsher actions against China

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  58. What will the ECB do next?

    01 June 2020 Ken Wattret

    Following April’s additional liquidity provision, June’s policy announcement is likely to center on ramping up net asset purchases via the PEPP....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  59. May forecast shows a sea of red states

    01 June 2020 Karl Kuykendall

    Our May US Regional forecast shows that every state will experience significant employment and GDP declines in the near term.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  60. US Monthly GDP Index for April 2020

    29 May 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    Monthly GDP Index plunged 11.3% in April

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  61. Argentina in default

    29 May 2020 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete

    Argentina failed to make a USD503-million payment of delayed interest on three bonds on the expiry of their grace periods, entering a technical...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
  62. Capital Markets Weekly: Corporate and bank issuance well-ahead of 2019

    28 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    European corporate high-grade supply in 2020 is 80% ahead of 2019 levels, while US bank issuance is over 40% higher.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  63. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities' rebound continues as eyes turn to China

    27 May 2020 Mr. William May

    Commodity prices record another strong week on prospects for Chinese stimulus and phased re-openings in Europe, Japan and the US

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  64. Regional manufacturing indexes begin long road back in May

    26 May 2020 Tom Jackson

    Regional surveys of manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in May after crashing to historic lows in April.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  65. Capital Markets Weekly: Three emerging market defaults likely without triggering wider flight from asset class

    22 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    Argentina faces technical default on 22 May, Province of Buenos Aires triggered this on 14 May, and Digicel is also facing a Moody’s default...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  66. Weekly Pricing Pulse: The rebound begins to look more convincing

    20 May 2020 Mr. William May

    Economies reopening and supply-side issues drive another strong gain in commodities

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  67. Measuring country risk from the bottom up results in opportunities

    19 May 2020 Alexia Ash

    A “bottom-up” approach is less volatile and more nuanced than a markets-led approach and results in the potential for investment opportunities...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Coronavirus
  68. Global recovery to take years

    18 May 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE

    Recovery in global economic output to pre-pandemic levels will take two to three years

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  69. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Oil helps drive commodity prices higher

    14 May 2020 Mr. William May

    OPEC+ supply cuts and weaker US output lifts crude prices and the broader commodity complex

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  70. Capital Markets Weekly: Grenada tests scope for low-income debt relief while Bahrain extends sovereign risk threshold

    14 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    Grenada became the first IDA country to seek an agreed debt moratorium on its private-sector debt – but then met slated payments to avoid default...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  71. Food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

    12 May 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler

    COVID-19, armed conflicts and locust swarms will drive an increase in Sub-Saharan Africans facing a food crisis

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
  72. Global construction spending is expected to decline substantially in 2020

    11 May 2020 Jeannine Cataldi

    Construction in Americas, Middle East and Africa regions have been the hardest hit by issues related to the COVID-19 virus pandemic.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Capital Construction Costs
  73. Capital Markets Weekly: Continued Latin American supply and perpetual AT1 sales further confirm healthy risk-appetite

    08 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    Alongside bond supply from Bahrain, Chile and a syndicated 15-year deal from Germany, this week has seen the completion of two perpetual capital...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  74. Nearly 2 million Canadian jobs vanished in April because of COVID-19

    08 May 2020 Arlene Kish, M.A.

    Canada's job market was devastated once again with a 1,993,800 nosedive in net employment, which was weaker than our expectations.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  75. Capital Markets Weekly: Equity supply increases including important test of appetite for Chinese risk

    08 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    Primary equity activity has expanded including sizeable deals for Southwest Airlines, Reliance Industries and a substantial Chinese IPO.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  76. Latin America mining industry is expected to be the most heavily impacted industrial sector due to country risk after COVID-19

    08 May 2020 Alexia Ash

    Mining in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru likely to face acute challenges in the wake of COVID-19

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Coronavirus
  77. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Geopolitics re-enters the picture

    06 May 2020 Mr. William May

    Crude oil rises sharply, but markets are becoming nervous about a resumption in the US-China trade war

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  78. Lebanese bank losses to reach 200% of GDP

    06 May 2020 Gabrielle Ventura

    The Lebanese government’s financial sector restructuring plan includes banking sector losses of at least 200% of forecast 2019 nominal GDP

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
  79. Malay Peninsula piracy

    05 May 2020 Columb Strack Anton Alifandi

    Growing piracy off Malay Peninsula likely to be exacerbated by economic effect of COVID-19-virus crisis

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Coronavirus
  80. Capital Markets Weekly: National Australia Bank sets precedent for wider bank equity-raising

    01 May 2020 Brian Lawson

    NAB has arranged an AUD3 billion underwritten share placement to offset COVID-19 impacts, setting a sector precedent for capital raising

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  81. US Monthly GDP Index for March 2020

    28 April 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 5.1% in March 2020.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  82. Capital Markets Weekly: Italy and Spain set new demand records within sharply-growing sovereign issuance

    24 April 2020 Brian Lawson

    Italy gained record demand of over EUR110 billion for a EUR16 billion syndicated package, and Spain EUR97 billion for EUR15 billion of 10-year...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  83. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities mirror equities with back to back weekly gains

    23 April 2020 Mr. William May

    Optimism remains in markets despite extensions to lockdowns

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  84. Regional manufacturing indexes plumb new depths in April

    20 April 2020 Tom Jackson

    Regional surveys of manufacturing activity established new series lows in April, obliterating the previous lows set in 2009.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  85. Managing global supply chain risk in uncertain times

    17 April 2020 Kristyna Alexova Aleksandra Maguire

    Findings from our EPIC report help supply chain professionals drive more informed decisions about how to best operate in unprecedented times

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Data
  86. After the worst recession since the 1930s, what path will the recovery take?

    16 April 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE

    What does recovery look like? Our economists provide their outlook

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  87. Impact of COVID-19 on protest and riot risks

    16 April 2020 James Petretta

    Analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on protest and riot risks globally

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
    • Coronavirus
  88. Capital Markets Weekly: Underpinned by central bank quantitative easing, bond markets indicate recovering risk appetite

    16 April 2020 Brian Lawson

    Latin American, Asian and junk-bond supply this week indicates improved bond market risk appetite, despite worsening debt sustainability

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  89. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Are we seeing a bottom

    15 April 2020 Mr. William May

    Volatility falls and prices rise as markets begin to calm

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  90. Vulnerability to Covid-19 may be highest in countries not yet affected by outbreak

    09 April 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler

    Our COVID–19 Country Vulnerability Index ranks countries’ capacity to deal with new outbreaks as well as those expected in the coming weeks and...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  91. COVID-19 raises risks to global financial stability

    08 April 2020 Alyssa Grzelak

    In total, across S&P Global’s 52 rated banking sectors, the outlook on our rating is Negative for 41 economies, an increase of 32 since the beginning...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Financial Risk Analytics
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  92. Central America recession risk

    08 April 2020 Dr. Kari Pries, Ph.D. Cristina Arbelaez

    Severe US recession to curtail remittances to Central American countries, worsening external balances and domestic recession risks

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
  93. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Equities pause, but the commodity sell-off gathers pace

    08 April 2020 William May

    Commodities plunged further, faster in another broad-based move lower

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  94. Country Risk Month Ahead: April 2020

    06 April 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    S&P Global looks ahead to the events shaping country risk in April 2020.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Coronavirus
  95. Ethiopia highlights challenges for African countries in coping with COVID-19

    01 April 2020 Alisa Strobel

    Ethiopia’s Prime Minster calls for emergency budgetary support and debt relief for African countries for which COVID-19 will pose a significant...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  96. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Another week of broad-based declines in commodities prices

    01 April 2020 Thomas McCartin

    Collapsing demand continues to push commodity prices lower.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  97. US states to endure the deepest COVID-19 related near-term declines

    01 April 2020 Karl Kuykendall

    No state will be immune from employment and GDP declines this year given the sudden and deep economic shocks associated with the necessary containment...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  98. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging markets increasingly rely on official lenders

    30 March 2020 Brian Lawson

    While investment grade borrowers are rushing in record volume to capture liquidity, emerging market borrowers rely ever more on IMF support

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  99. COVID-19 recession to be deeper than that of 2008-2009

    30 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D.

    Most economies won’t return to pre-pandemic levels of output for 2-3 years

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  100. Capital Markets Weekly: Risk of multiple emerging-market defaults increasing

    26 March 2020 Brian Lawson

    Despite IMF/IBRD moves to ease official debt burdens, Ecuador has moved towards debt default:  Argentina and African states also seeking relief...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  101. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities sell off as the shut-downs continue

    25 March 2020 William May

    Manufacturing shuts down in Europe and the US as COVID-19 takes a hold

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  102. Capital Markets Weekly: Market volatility to remain severe amidst flight to cash

    20 March 2020 Brian Lawson

    Despite large-scale fiscal and monetary intervention including major QE programs, investors are continuing the flight to cash.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  103. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities drop sharply as the global economy shuts down

    19 March 2020 William May

    Energy prices tank as Western Europe begins social isolation in earnest

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  104. The global economy: Headed for recession

    18 March 2020 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    Disruptions to supply chains, demand, international trade flows, and travel, along with lockdowns and collapsing stock prices, resulting from...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  105. Fed does not dither: Aggressive monetary policy response to COVID19

    16 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.

    Sunday’s aggressive rate cut could be the “final” adjustment to the federal funds rate, as there is little appetite now within the Federal Reserve...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  106. COVID-19: Sub-saharan Africa impact channel

    16 March 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Saharan Africa (SSA) region is highly susceptible to ancillary effects from the COVID-19 virus outbreak

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
  107. Capital Markets Weekly: COVID-19 and energy market stand-off generating acute uncertainty

    13 March 2020 Brian Lawson

    This week’s market developments are dominated by the breakdown of OPEC production discipline and the global expansion of COVID-19.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  108. US Off Highway Equipment Impact Study

    13 March 2020 Shane Norton Scott Hazelton

    S&P Global study shows US off highway equipment industry directly supports 480,000 jobs and 2.8 million total jobs, with 35 states at more than...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  109. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices eke out a slight gain as central banks provide support

    11 March 2020 William May

    Commodities rose slightly last week as the US Federal Reserve cut rates to offset the effects of the spreading COVID-19 outbreak

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Coronavirus
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  110. COVID-19 Update: Few, if any, countries or industries will be immune to economic impact

    11 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ken Wattret Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D. Chris Williamson

    Expect a sharp reduction in near-term growth, followed by a slow recovery

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  111. Capital Markets Weekly: Debt Markets reopen with heavy supply but COVID-19 poses lasting market risks

    06 March 2020 Brian Lawson

    Despite a mid-week rush of corporate bond supply, S&P Global views COVID-19 to have lasting and sizeable adverse potential market impacts

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  112. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices tumble again as markets undergo worst week since 2008

    04 March 2020 William May

    Intensifying fears of the global impact of COVID-19 sparked a major sell-off in markets, which hit commodity prices once again last week

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  113. Federal Reserve Rx: 50 basis points of rate cuts now, more possible later

    03 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.

    Analysis from our Senior Economist Ken Matheny on today’s Federal Reserve rate cut

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  114. Public Mass-shooting Risk

    03 March 2020

    We recorded 78% more public mass shootings in 2019 than the preceding five-year average.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
  115. Lebanon banking crisis

    27 February 2020 Gabrielle Ventura

    On the precipice of crisis: What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
  116. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise before news of Covid-19 spread

    26 February 2020 William May

    Materials prices increase for second consecutive week; freight remains a weak spot.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  117. Capital Markets Weekly: Investor yield hunger underpins record Italian syndication

    14 February 2020 Brian Lawson

    Record Italy syndication and multiple hybrid deals highlight “risk-on” investor appetite.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  118. Malaysian economic growth moderates in Q4 2019

    13 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas

    2020 economic outlook for Malaysia clouded by coronavirus economic impact

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Market Analysis & Forecasts
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  119. Houthis selecting more UAVs over ballistic missiles in Arabian Peninsula attacks

    13 February 2020 Ludovico Carlino Firas Modad

    Yemen-based Houthi movement has mounted 462 attacks against targets inside Saudi territory since 2015

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
  120. Coronavirus economic shockwave hits the APAC aviation industry

    12 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas

    The Asia-Pacific commercial aviation industry is being hit by a massive economic shockwave from the escalating novel coronavirus crisis sweeping...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  121. Weekly Pricing Pulse: The coronavirus hammers commodities

    12 February 2020 William May

    Chinese travel restrictions are disrupting manufacturing, driving expectations of a demand shock

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  122. Djibouti contract and tax risks

    12 February 2020

    Djibouti's weakening fiscal position indicates tax demands targeting logistics and telecoms, cancellation of European renewable energy contracts...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  123. Capital Markets Weekly: India sets ambitious privatization program including LIC IPO 

    07 February 2020 Brian Lawson

    An active European block-deal calendar and India’s privatization program for 2020/21

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  124. Capital Markets Weekly: Poland becomes first emerging market issuer of negative-yielding term debt

    07 February 2020 Brian Lawson

    This week’s debt highlights were Poland capturing five-year funding at negative yields and Ghana raising 40-year bonds

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  125. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities sustain further loses on heavy selling

    05 February 2020 William May

    The disruptive effects of the spreading coronavirus on the Chinese economy sends commodity prices down hard

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  126. Islamic State activity after Baghdadi

    03 February 2020 Columb Strack

    Islamic State activity in Iraq and Syria unaffected by Baghdadi's death, Turkish incursion, or US partial-withdrawal

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Political Risk
  127. China’s stock markets slump on coronavirus black swan economic impact

    03 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas

    Worries about the spread of Coronavirus leads to Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling 8.2% by mid-morning on 3 February, with the Shenzhen Composite...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  128. Capital Markets Weekly: France and Greece continue long-dated issuance within rallying bond markets

    30 January 2020 Brian Lawson

    Within improving bond markets, this week’s market highlight was Greece’s 15-year syndicated sale

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  129. Coronavirus impact

    30 January 2020

    Concerns around the coronavirus are spreading. Our experts look at the economic and security impacts

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  130. Egypt's anniversary protests

    30 January 2020 Jack A. Kennedy

    Despite government critic's protest call for anniversary of 2011 revolution, significant mobilisation in Egyptian cities unlikely

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
  131. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Coronavirus fears shake commodities

    30 January 2020 William May

    Commodity markets, already slow over Lunar New Year, are being hit by worry over the impact of the coronavirus on Chinese demand

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  132. US Monthly GDP Index for December 2019

    29 January 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2019.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  133. Czechia's Chinese investment relations

    28 January 2020 Blanka Kolenikova

    Czech president’s decision not to attend summit in China unlikely to alter foreign relations or affect investments

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Risk
  134. Tunisia early election risk

    24 January 2020 Ludovico Carlino

    Failure by Prime Minister-designate to win confidence vote increases likelihood of new elections in Tunisia

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  135. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market sovereigns enjoy deal rush

    24 January 2020 Brian Lawson

    Five sizeable emerging markets deals were sold successfully on 21 January, with Pemex particularly-successful.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  136. Zimbabwe's currency swap deal

    23 January 2020 Alisa Strobel

    Zimbabwe has entered into a currency swap deal with China, however, the deal is unlikely to solve Zimbabwe's foreign-exchange crisis and suggests...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  137. Coronavirus: Economic risks to the Asia-Pacific region

    23 January 2020 Rajiv Biswas

    The economic consequences of the coronavirus could be extremely concerning for the Asia-Pacific region

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Income Distribution
    • Consumer Spending
    • Economic Data
  138. India policy disputes

    22 January 2020 Deepa Kumar

    Disputes between India's central and state governments probably to increase given disagreement over citizenship law, taxation

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  139. GDP effect of a longer pause in 737 MAX production

    22 January 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    Our examines the impact of a longer than expected pause in the production of Boeing’s 737 MAX

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  140. Indonesia industrial disruption

    22 January 2020

    Parliamentary debates over labour liberalisation bill likely to fuel periodic, large-scale protests in Indonesia’s major industrial cities

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
  141. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities move higher on restocking and trade-deal momentum

    22 January 2020 William May

    Commodities powered higher last week on Asian restocking demand and a clearer trade outlook

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  142. Latin America and the Iran-US conflict

    17 January 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman

    Iran-US conflict to disrupt Brazil-Iran trade, increase Venezuela sanctions risks, and potentially undermine Argentina’s relationship with IMF...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
  143. Al-Shabaab attacks Kenya

    16 January 2020 William Farmer

    Al-Shabaab assault on airfield indicates broadening of target set to include military installations in Kenya and Somalia

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Political Risk
  144. Capital Markets Weekly: Highly-active primary markets continue, reflecting seasonal factors

    16 January 2020 Brian Lawson

    After record Euro-issuance last week, markets remain highly-active with six sovereign syndicated bond deals: Saudi Aramco grew its IPO 15%

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  145. Brazil's fiscal reforms

    15 January 2020 Carlos Caicedo

    Brazil’s fiscal reform likely to lose momentum in 2020 given president’s lack of engagement with Congress

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
  146. Metals price outlook 2020

    14 January 2020 John Mothersole John Anton

    What will the market look like in 2020 for metals?

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  147. Twenty-six states will raise their minimum wage in 2020

    13 January 2020 Steven Frable

    Economic studies ascribe a range of effects (positive and negative) to higher minimum wages. We take a close look as 26 states make adjustments....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  148. Swedish Riksbank defies global monetary policy loosening

    10 January 2020 Daniel Kral

    The timing and nature of the decision are highly unusual, while the reasoning is not entirely clear.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  149. Capital Markets Weekly: Markets shrug off Iranian risks

    09 January 2020 Brian Lawson

    A record USD3 billion sale by Israel along with successful sovereign debt sales by Slovenia, Ireland and Portugal.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  150. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities dip slightly on gas price volatility

    08 January 2020 William May

    European gas prices plummet on pipeline deal, before US-Iran tensions boil over at the week's end

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  151. Ten states lost population in 2019

    08 January 2020 Tom Jackson

    A trend of weaker population growth overall and a decline in natural population increase has negative implications for economic growth at both...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Consumer Spending
    • Income Distribution
    • Economic Data
  152. Singapore election outlook

    07 January 2020 Asad Ali

    Singapore's election likely in March 2020, followed by ruling party leadership transition, but policy continuity almost certain

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  153. Japan's stimulus package

    06 January 2020 Harumi Taguchi, M.A.

    Stimulus package including supplemental budget likely to mitigate downside risks, boost support for Abe administration in Japan

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  154. Capital Markets Weekly: Year-end data flags strong Euro-denominated issuance and selective IPO markets during 2019

    02 January 2020 Brian Lawson

    Recent data shows Euro-denominated debt issuance at near-record levels, but IPO deal numbers fell roughly one-fifth in 2019.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  155. Political risks and capital flows in 2020

    02 January 2020 Langelihle Malimela Ege Seckin Deepa Kumar Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    How will several political developments in selected emerging markets impact on capital flows such as private investment, bank lending, and trade....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Financial Risk Analytics
    • Economic Risk
  156. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Holiday lull slows end of year commodity rally

    02 January 2020 William May

    The six-week rally slowed last week as markets wait for direction in 2020

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  157. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for November

    31 December 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  158. Guatemala extortion risks

    27 December 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.

    Transport networks, small and medium-sized businesses in Guatemala face extortion demands from expanding range of criminal actors

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
  159. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities continue rising as headwinds clear

    24 December 2019 William May

    Less uncertainty on trade supports rebounding commodity prices

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  160. Kenyan SME prospects

    24 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Kenyan MSMEs to benefit from reduced taxation in 2020 but capital constraints to limit private-sector performance

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Legal Risk
    • Taxation Risk
  161. Ethiopia's privatization drive

    23 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Ethiopia to finalize foreign investment framework for aviation, energy, and telecommunications, but banking excluded

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  162. Thailand 2020 outlook

    20 December 2019 David Li

    Large-scale but peaceful protests likely in 2020 across Thailand because of opposition-candidate disqualification and economic slowdown

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  163. WTO dysfunction

    19 December 2019 Petya Barzilska John Raines, Ph.D. David Li Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    As the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body (AB) ceases to function, around 88 trade disputes are very likely to remain unresolved....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  164. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices welcome a trade war de-escalation

    18 December 2019 William May

    The US-China 'phase one’ trade deal' reduces tensions and improves the mood in markets

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  165. Top 10 economic predictions for 2020

    17 December 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    What's coming in 2020? Global growth will expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2020 before edging up to 2.7% in 2021 and 2022.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  166. Weekly Pricing Pulse: The case builds for higher commodity prices

    11 December 2019 William May

    More positive data points help to propel prices to a third week of gains

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  167. Capital Markets Weekly: Liability extension and search for yield continue post-Thanksgiving

    05 December 2019 Brian Lawson

    In the first week after Thanksgiving, two borrowers raised perpetual debt and several others obtained longer-dated liabilities.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  168. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise for a second week

    04 December 2019 William May

    Better news on manufacturing is providing some support for commodities.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  169. Capital Markets weekly: ICMA conference highlights complexity of ESG fund-labelling initiative

    03 December 2019 Brian Lawson

    ICMA’s AMIC conference on 27 November considered the EU’s efforts to establish an “Ecolabel” for environmentally-friendly investment vehicles. ...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  170. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rise but without conviction

    27 November 2019 William May

    Commodity prices finally join other asset classes in increasing

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  171. Capital Markets Weekly: China successfully returns to dollar market in Thanksgiving-affected week

    27 November 2019 Brian Lawson

    This week’s clear highlight is China’s return to the dollar bond market with a substantially-oversubscribed four-tranche issue.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  172. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for October

    27 November 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  173. Kenya data regulations

    21 November 2019 William Farmer

    New data protection law increases regulatory burden in Kenya's mobile money lending sector; more regulation likely

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
  174. Thanksgiving turkey price forecast

    21 November 2019 David Deull

    After drying out in 2018, turkey prices are set to soak up a little more gravy this Thanksgiving

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Consumer Spending
    • Income Distribution
    • Economic Data
  175. Western Balkan's mini-Schengen

    20 November 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri

    Western Balkan "mini-Schengen" initiative has potential to boost trade, but will be limited to agriculture and tourism

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
  176. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities fail to look on the bright-side

    20 November 2019 William May

    Despite positive wording coming from US-China trade talks commodity prices fell again last week

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  177. Colombia policy opposition

    19 November 2019 Arthur Dhont

    Colombian government likely to struggle to implement economic policies in 2020 because of social and legislative opposition

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  178. Capital Markets Weekly: Sweden selling assets on environmental grounds following sizable Norwegian divestitures

    19 November 2019 Brian Lawson

    Sweden’s central bank has followed the recent example set by Norway’s state pension fund in divesting assets deemed to have a high carbon footprint...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  179. Capital controls in sub-Saharan Africa

    19 November 2019 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Over the past decade strong economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was accompanied by resurgent commodity prices and growing demands for infrastructure...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  180. Italy steelworks nationalization

    15 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri

    Dispute over Taranto steelworks increases likelihood of nationalization but does not represent shift in Italy's industrial policy

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
  181. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging Market issuers active despite recent bond-market yield reversal

    15 November 2019 Brian Lawson

    Since late August, the negative-yielding debt stock fell USD5 trillion to USD12 trillion with France’s 10 year OAT now giving a positive yield...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  182. Holiday retail sales outlook 2019

    13 November 2019 James Bohnaker

    Retailers have good reason to be optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season, but not without a hint of caution

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Consumer Spending
    • Automotive Retail Trends/Transformation
    • Income Distribution
    • Economic Data
  183. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade deal hopes unfulfilled

    13 November 2019 William May

    Optimism that tariffs might be selectively reduced lifted commodity prices mid-week before falling flat

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  184. Djibouti opposition protests

    13 November 2019

    Opposition protests to escalate before Djibouti’s 2020-21 elections, with presidential succession and boundary disputes being notable triggers...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  185. Hercules plan will help Greek banks to reduce their high NPL exposures

    13 November 2019 Diego Iscaro

    Greece has unveiled an asset protection scheme aimed at helping banks to lower their non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which is the highest in...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  186. Capital Markets Weekly: China and Brazil achieve long-dated debt successes

    08 November 2019 Brian Lawson

    China raised 12- and 20-year funding in its first Euro-deal since 2004. Brazil sold 10-and 31-year dollar debt at its second-lowest cost to date....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  187. RCEP deal creates giant new FTA in Asia Pacific as India stands aside

    06 November 2019 Rajiv Biswas

    Rajiv Biswas, our Asia Pacific Chief Economist, provides his comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal which will create...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Economic Data
  188. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities resist positive events and press lower

    06 November 2019 William May

    A PMI surprise, a Fed rate cut, and trade optimism failed to buoy commodity markets

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  189. Death of Baghdadi

    05 November 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin Columb Strack

    Baghdadi's death unlikely to significantly reduce capabilities of Islamic State-aligned localized jihadist factions in Syria and Iraq

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
  190. Nile dam dispute

    04 November 2019 Jordan Anderson Jihane Boudiaf Jack A. Kennedy

    Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan likely to resume talks over Nile dam dispute; escalation to military action highly unlikely

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
  191. Capital Markets Weekly: Lebanon and Argentina under bond-market scrutiny

    01 November 2019 Brian Lawson

    Debt markets eased only modestly after the first-round Peronist victory in Argentina’s elections but Lebanon is attracting growing adverse focus....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  192. Italy's regional elections

    01 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri

    Umbria regional elections to bolster Italy’s Lega-led opposition and undermine cohesion of national government

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  193. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity price basket reaches lowest level of 2019

    30 October 2019 Thomas McCartin

    Markets have taken on a bearish view of the near future due to trade policy uncertainty.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  194. Halloween candy spending to shamble on as prices jolt to life

    28 October 2019 David Deull

    We are forecasting Americans to spend a total of $2.7 billion on Halloween candy in 2019, the most yet

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Income Distribution
    • Consumer Spending
    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  195. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for September

    28 October 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  196. Hungarian municipal elections

    28 October 2019 Blanka Kolenikova

    Hungarian opposition's municipal election gains bolster hopes for 2022 general poll, but Fidesz government remains stable

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  197. Capital Markets Weekly: Barbados completes debt restructuring and Lebanon facing growing risks

    25 October 2019 Brian Lawson

    While Barbados appears to have reached agreement with international creditors, Lebanese yields indicate increasing growing debt-sustainability...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  198. The global economy: Rising trade policy uncertainty is weighing heavily on capital spending

    25 October 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    The October Global Economic Forecast Flash from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  199. European development financing

    24 October 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    EU proposals to establish development bank targeting sub-Saharan Africa likely to advance slowly given significant disagreements

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
  200. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Soft Chinese data weighs on commodities

    23 October 2019 William May

    The on-going slow-down in Chinese industrial activity continues to check raw material prices

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  201. Demographics in Europe: Which countries are poised to succeed

    23 October 2019 Sharon Fisher

    While demographic challenges are daunting, some countries are better positioned than others to live with shrinking populations.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Consumer Spending
    • Income Distribution
    • Economic Data
  202. Bank of Korea’s policy rate cut reflects growing concerns about slower global economic growth

    21 October 2019 Rajiv Biswas

    Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at S&P Global, provides his comments on BOK’s decision to cut the policy rate

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  203. Capital Markets Weekly: CMBS record sale and sub-1percent corporate perpetual issue highlight yield appetite

    21 October 2019 Brian Lawson

    A post-crisis record CMBS sale, the first sub-1% corporate perpetual, and a large Italian project bond all indicate healthy risk appetite

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  204. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices slide in mixed week

    16 October 2019 William May

    Optimism over a possible US-China trade deal was not enough to keep commodity prices from falling

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  205. Capital Markets Weekly: Enel highlights divergent approaches to issue environmentally-friendly debt

    11 October 2019 Brian Lawson

    Italian power firm Enel will stop issuing Green Bonds, in favor of sustainable debt, while Sweden and Italy are preparing Green Bond debuts.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
    • Economics
  206. Peru shuts down Congress

    11 October 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB

    Peruvian president's move to constitutionally shut down Congress likely to trigger political standoff, delaying investments and projects

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economics
  207. Chile's mining review

    10 October 2019 Carla Selman

    Chilean Supreme Court order to re-assess mining project signals legal uncertainties and likely delays for large-scale developments

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economics
  208. Kenya's budget cut

    10 October 2019 William Farmer

    Kenya's proposed budget cut likely to target public-sector wage bill, increasing likelihood of strikes

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economics
  209. Capital Markets Weekly: Italian and Greek debt successes highlight continuing yield-driven diversification

    07 October 2019 Brian Lawson

    Highlights this week include Greek corporate issuance and record-low yields for auctions of five and ten-year Italian government debt.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
    • Economics
  210. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Energy prices retreat as supply fears recede

    02 October 2019 William May

    Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  211. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Energy prices retreat as supply fears recede

    02 October 2019 William May

    Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  212. Belarusian external finances highlight vulnerability and dependency on Russia

    02 October 2019 Venla Sipilä-Rosen

    Having given up earlier plans to issue a Eurobond this year Belarus remains financially fragile.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  213. Capital Markets Weekly: Multiple emerging-market sovereign bond sales well-received

    27 September 2019 Brian Lawson

    Emerging market sovereign supply has revived strongly with sovereign issuance by South Africa, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Ecuador and Uruguay this week....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  214. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for August

    26 September 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  215. Ecuador mining prohibition

    26 September 2019 Arthur Dhont

    Constitutional Court ruling denies province-wide anti-mining referendum in Azuay, Ecuador, reducing likelihood of mining prohibition

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Taxation Risk
    • Legal Risk
  216. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Oil and gas propel commodities higher

    25 September 2019 William May

    A second Fed rate cut supports growth while oil volatility hits commodity prices

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  217. Israel's election outlook

    24 September 2019 Jack A. Kennedy

    Inconclusive Israeli parliamentary election increases likelihood of unity government being formed; shifts in security policy unlikely

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  218. Capital Markets Weekly: ECB policy-easing drives strong financial and corporate sector supply

    20 September 2019 Brian Lawson

    Following last week’s ECB easing, European markets have shown strong demand, absorbing an impressive corporate and financial-sector calendar....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  219. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Improving sentiment boosts commodities

    18 September 2019 William May

    Easing trade tensions and policy stimulus in Europe lifts prices

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  220. Ethiopia's new economic program challenged by foreign-exchange scarcity

    17 September 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alisa Strobel

    Ethiopia's new economic program to strengthen investor protections but foreign-exchange scarcity will persist, limiting investment inflows.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  221. Germany and the ‘R’ word – what type of recession should we expect

    17 September 2019 Timo Klein

    Understanding the factors that have likely led to a technical recession in Germany around mid-2019 is key to assessing the outlook in the months...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  222. Economic outlook following ECB rate cuts

    13 September 2019 Ken Wattret

    Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, provides his initial thoughts on economic outlook following the European Central Bank meeting

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  223. The Bank of Canada’s sticky situation

    13 September 2019 Arlene Kish

    The Bank believes that “the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate.”

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  224. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Good news no help to commodity prices

    13 September 2019 William May

    A flurry of good news eases tensions but commodity prices resist the risk-on mood

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  225. Capital Markets Weekly: Berkshire Hathaway record Yen deal indicates growing but constrained funding opportunities

    13 September 2019 Brian Lawson

    Berkshire Hathaway sold a record JPY430 billion global yen issue: 2019 Samurai supply already has surpassed the prior annual peak.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  226. Market Briefing: Argentina's October elections and the political and economic outlook

    12 September 2019 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Brian Lawson

    Spend 30 minutes with our economics and country risk experts as we look at what's unfolding in Argentina.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

  227. The global economy: Increased uncertainty, apprehension

    12 September 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    A look at the global economic outlook from our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
  228. Household income gains slowed but poverty rate fell in 2018

    11 September 2019 James Bohnaker David Deull

    Tight labor markets are continuing to boost wages across income groups, while consumer price inflation has moderated relative to 2018

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Consumer Spending
    • Income Distribution
    • Economic Data
  229. Jamaica to exit IMF agreement with above-average growth

    11 September 2019

    Jamaica’s economic management has improved greatly during the three-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund, which...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  230. Higher nickel prices are here to stay

    11 September 2019 Amanda Eglinton

    LME nickel price will move moderately lower over the near term once the short covering is completed

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  231. Capital Markets Weekly: Primary surge after Labor Day indicates continuing strong debt demand

    06 September 2019 Brian Lawson

    Markets have been highly active after Labor Day: a record 21 US high grade deals were launched on 3 September, bolstered by poor US PMI data....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  232. Pension reform in Brazil

    06 September 2019 Carlos Caicedo

    Brazilian Senate's finalisation of pension reform with slight modifications is very likely, implementation to help reduce fiscal deficit

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  233. Nigeria's new cabinet

    05 September 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.

    New Nigerian cabinet's composition indicates government unlikely to reduce power-sector liquidity shortages and energy industry corruption

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  234. Risks of a broad US corporate debt bubble overstated

    04 September 2019 Michael Ryan

    Risk to the corporate debt market is not systemic and remains contained when examined in aggregate, with concerns limited to certain sub-industries...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  235. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities fall on continued concerns about demand

    04 September 2019 William May

    Trade tensions ease but commodities continue to struggle

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  236. Capital Markets Weekly: Argentina seeks debt rescheduling

    03 September 2019 Brian Lawson

    Argentina plans “voluntary reprofiling” of its international debt including IMF borrowings and enforced payment delay on domestic obligations...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  237. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for July

    29 August 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Market Analysis & Forecasts
    • Economic Data
  238. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade actions create a more bearish outlook for commodities

    28 August 2019 William May

    Tariff hikes again lower expectations for demand

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  239. Capital Markets Weekly: German 30-year Bund sale at negative yields attracts limited demand

    23 August 2019 Brian Lawson

    This week’s most notable development was Germany’s undersubscribed 30-year EUR2 billion Bund auction: EUR824 million was sold at -0.11%.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  240. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession worries undercut commodity prices

    21 August 2019 William May

    Uncertainty and fear of slowing aggregate demand send prices down again

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  241. Ethiopia's solar power reforms

    19 August 2019

    Ethiopia's proposed off-grid electricity tariff reform and predictable network expansion plans likely to increase solar power investment

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  242. Guatemala's next president

    16 August 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.

    Guatemala’s next president elected on pro-business platform, policy implementation likely to face delays in opposition-led Congress

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  243. Capital Markets Weekly: Argentine Primary election vote triggers market shock, new sovereign-default fears

    16 August 2019 Brian Lawson

    Argentine securities faced exceptional volatility after its Primary elections indicated a first-round victory for the Peronist opposition.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  244. Argentinian primary election

    15 August 2019 Carla Selman

    Opposition wins Argentine primaries making re-election of pro-business president highly unlikely, risk of state interventionism increases

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  245. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade concerns continue to weigh on commodity markets

    14 August 2019 William May

    Commodity prices retreat, broadly led by an overdue correction in Iron ore

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  246. Ranking metropolitan business costs

    12 August 2019 Karl Kuykendall

    Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix and Raleigh strike the right note with business costs/employment growth

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
  247. Capital Markets Weekly: Increased trade conflict sparks further bond-market rally

    09 August 2019 Brian Lawson

    Negative-yielding debt grew USD1 trillion in two days after the US expanded trade sanctions against China

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  248. Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 12 August 2019

    09 August 2019 Sian Jones Rajiv Biswas Joseph Hayes Chris Williamson Bernard Aw

    Week Ahead Economic Preview

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

  249. Assessing the risk of a currency war

    07 August 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    Nariman Behravesh’s analysis of the devaluation of the renminbi and economic impact

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  250. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade actions offset any positives

    07 August 2019 William May

    The prospect of a broader and more prolonged US-China trade issues unsettles markets.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  251. Security in Kashmir

    06 August 2019

    Central government to oversee Indian Kashmir's security following special autonomy abrogation, increasing likelihood of cross-border skirmishes...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
  252. Non-damage business interruption

    06 August 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Modelling non-damage business interruption caused by terrorism attacks

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
  253. Capital Markets Weekly: Worldline convertible bond sets new record for negative coupon

    02 August 2019 Brian Lawson

    More outstanding debt, especially in Euros, now provides negative returns. Worldline’s new convertible sale set a record of -0.96%.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  254. Syria sanctions implications

    02 August 2019 Columb Strack

    Fuel shortages resulting from Western sanctions on Syrian government likely indirectly benefit Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists in Idlib province

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  255. Assessing slack: How tight is the French labor market

    02 August 2019 Diego Iscaro

    There are indications that labor market conditions in France are tighter than suggested by the standard unemployment rate

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

  256. Chile eco-nihilist terrorism

    01 August 2019 Carla Selman

    IED attacks highlight new targets in Chile’s capital, including companies’ assets and executives, hastening passage of anti-terrorism law

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Political Risk
  257. Markets should not be confused by the FOMC

    01 August 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.

    Analysis from our US economics team on the July 31 FOMC rate decision and market reaction

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Government Policy & Regulations
  258. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities continue to mark time

    31 July 2019 William May

    Bearish sentiment returns on weak economic data

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  259. Colombian budget proposals

    31 July 2019 Arthur Dhont

    2020 budget proposal indicates changing Colombian government priorities; cuts planned in agriculture, energy and mining, transport.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  260. Capital Markets Weekly: Supply eases in week overshadowed by Federal Reserve and ECB meetings

    29 July 2019 Brian Lawson

    Despite pending key central bank meetings, Panama, Mexico, YPF Luz and various Italian borrowers benefited from receptive conditions

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  261. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for June

    29 July 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  262. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Prices remain on the fence awaiting 31st July

    29 July 2019 William May

    No real direction in materials prices despite dovish tones from the Fed

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  263. Sudan coup attempt

    19 July 2019 Jihane Boudiaf

    Sudanese coup attempt unlikely to have been at advanced stage, but likely stalling transition negotiations motivate protests

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  264. Capital Markets Weekly: Major share flotations pulled but wider equity indicators remain constructive

    19 July 2019 Brian Lawson

    AB Inbev withdrew the USD9.8 billion sale of its Asian unit, citing “market conditions”, despite US stock indices reaching all-time highs.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  265. South Africa nationalization risk

    18 July 2019 Langelihle Malimela

    Reappointment of South African central bank governor significantly lowers risk of nationalization and mandate revision

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  266. Mexico legal certainty

    17 July 2019

    Mexican government's renegotiation of gas pipeline contracts highlights broader decline in legal certainty across multiple sectors

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Operational Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  267. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities pause waiting for a rate cut

    17 July 2019 William May

    Prices retreat fractionally as markets enter a holding pattern in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  268. Why eurozone stubborn low inflation rate is a cause for concern

    16 July 2019 Ken Wattret

    Deflation worries would return if the economy were hit by a major adverse shock.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  269. Ethiopia plans a spending increase

    15 July 2019 Alisa Strobel

    Increase in spending as part of the new budget requires efforts to increase tax revenue as last year's tax revenue performance was below target....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  270. Incorporating country risk for effective investing

    15 July 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash

    Case study on how to value country risks in Mozambique and Peru

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
  271. Sudan seeks natural resource sharing

    12 July 2019 William Farmer

    Sudanese leader seeks union with South Sudan, probably to increase revenue share from natural resources

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  272. Capital Markets Weekly: Funding requests and politically-driven challenges for some markets

    12 July 2019 Brian Lawson

    Turkey’s central bank governor was fired abruptly while Mexico’s Finance Minister resigned, publicly criticizing the AMLO administration.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  273. New institutional cycle for the EU

    11 July 2019 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard

    Disagreement between the Council and Parliament over the nomination of new EU leaders indicates an increased likelihood of inter-institutional...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  274. The Indian budget for 2019-2020

    10 July 2019 Deepa Kumar

    Indian budget focuses on tariff support for domestic manufacturing: wider economic liberalization in India likely to proceed gradually

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Economic Risk
  275. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices jump in a narrow rally

    10 July 2019 William May

    Iron ore hits another 5-year high whilst US ethylene surges.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  276. Global IT services companies and their contribution to the US economy

    08 July 2019

    Insights from The National Association of Software Services Companies commissioned study on the impact their companies have on the US economy....

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  277. New Danish center-left government

    03 July 2019 Dijedon Imeri

    New center-left Danish government to focus on increased social spending and cutting greenhouse gas emissions

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  278. Capital Markets Weekly: Bond market continues search for yield with new record yield lows

    03 July 2019 Brian Lawson

    European bond markets have reached new record lows, while tighter EM spreads have encouraged Turkey and Argentine corporates to issue

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  279. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rise on US-China détente at G20

    03 July 2019 William May

    Easing tensions between US-China counter fears of economic weakness for now

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  280. Libya aviation and marine risks

    03 July 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin

    Severe aviation and marine risks in western Libya as LNA threatens retaliation for Turkish support to GNA.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  281. Capital Markets Weekly: Markets continue seeking riskier and long-duration debt

    28 June 2019 Brian Lawson

    Emerging market and other higher-risk debt supply has continued unabated, including sales by YPF and subordinated Greek bank debt.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Market Analysis & Forecasts
    • Economic Data
  282. Houthi threat to shipping

    27 June 2019 Ludovico Carlino

    Houthi threat to target international shipping indicates growing marine risks in the southern Yemeni Red Sea

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  283. Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for May

    26 June 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    Monthly US GDP Index Rose 0.2% in May 2019          

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  284. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity rebound continues even with fear over fundamentals

    26 June 2019 William May

    Geopolitics, supply issues and buoyed sentiment outweigh growth fears to lift commodity prices.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  285. Coup risks in Lesotho

    26 June 2019 Langelihle Malimela

    Expulsion of senior ruling party figures elevates coup risk in Lesotho

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
  286. Haiti power vacuum

    25 June 2019 Carla Selman

    Haitian president’s mention in court corruption report raises ousting chances, power vacuum over coming months highly likely

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
  287. Longest US expansion on record

    24 June 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

    Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, looks at whats driving the current economic expansion in the US

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    • Economic Data
  288. Casamance robbery risk

    21 June 2019 Martin Roberts

    Armed robbery risk rises in Casamance region of Senegal as peace negotiations with militant factions stall

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Security Risk
  289. Balkans EU accession prospects

    20 June 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri

    EU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability...

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  290. Capital Markets Weekly: European markets rallying further in expectation of policy easing

    19 June 2019 Brian Lawson

    While this week’s supply has abated after last week’s rush, European bond markets have rallied sharply to new historic lows

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  291. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities prices rally after six-week rout

    19 June 2019 William May

    Large moves in iron ore, lumber and other key commodities turned commodity prices up last week.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  292. Cameroonian secessionist capability

    14 June 2019 William Farmer

    If secessionists' responsibility claim for Cameroonian refinery fire is legitimate, it would represent notable capability increase

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  293. Capital Markets Weekly: Falling bond rates drive impressive sovereign debt calendar

    14 June 2019 Brian Lawson

    Five sovereign borrowers - Croatia, Indonesia, Italy, Lithuania and Spain - have issued this week with Peru, Serbia and Ukraine pending.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Economic Data
  294. Swiss-EU relations

    14 June 2019 Jan Gerhard

    Delay to new framework agreement on Swiss-EU relations beyond October federal elections would risk causing disruption to trade.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  295. Two Koreas war risks

    13 June 2019

    Further cancellation of official meeting between two Koreas indicates even leadership-level summits unlikely to reduce war risks.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
  296. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Oil suffers a rout as US pivots on new Mexican tariffs

    12 June 2019 William May

    Large oil inventory gain reinforces oversupply concerns in markets already suffering from poor demand outlook.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  297. Market Briefing: South African political and economic concerns

    11 June 2019 Thea Fourie Langelihle Malimela Brian Lawson

    Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand the political disagreement over RBSA's role and adverse economic developments

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
  298. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade uncertainty piles on

    10 June 2019 Thomas McCartin

    New tariff threat on Mexican imports hurt the chance for the USMCA’s ratification.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  299. Global economic growth slips to three-year low amid gloomier outlook

    10 June 2019 Chris Williamson

    Global economic growth slips to three year low amid gloomier outlook

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

  300. Turkish military operation in Kurdish region of Iraq

    07 June 2019 Ege Seckin

    Turkish military operation in Iraq's Kurdish region against PKK unlikely to affect nearby cities or oil assets.

    Rank : 0 Score: 1.001948 Core : IHS

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk

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