Monthly US GDP rose 0.2% in June following declines in five of the seven prior months. Monthly US GDP for May was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The small increase in June reflected positive contributions from net exports and personal consumption expenditures and a large negative contribution from residential investment. The level of monthly US GDP in June was 0.5% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 0.6% annualized US GDP growth in the third quarter is roughly a flat trend in monthly US GDP over July, August, and September.

Our index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 02 August 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.