Monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in July following a flat reading in June that was revised lower from a previously reported 0.2% increase. The July gain reflected a sharp increase in net exports that was partially offset by a decline in nonfarm inventory investment. Domestic final sales were little changed, reflecting an increase in personal consumption expenditures and decreases in both residential and nonresidential fixed investment.

The level of monthly GDP in July was 1.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 1.4% GDP growth in the third quarter is a roughly flat trend in GDP over August and September.

Our index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 02 September 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.