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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
May 05, 2017
Week ahead: BoE meeting, US inflation and Germany Q1 GDP
A highlight of the coming week will be the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting and updated forecasts, while US inflation and retail sales data will play a key role in determining the timing of the next policy move by the Federal Reserve. Other key data highlights include China's data releases on inflation, credit and loans, as well as first quarter GDP numbers for Germany and Hong Kong.
The focus shifts to the UK as the Bank of England reveals its latest quarterly Inflation Report, containing new projections for economic growth and inflation, and simultaneously announces its policy decision. The expectation is for interest rates to remain on hold, but some policymakers have started to make a case for higher interest rates.
The UK economy expanded at the weakest rate in a year during the first quarter as rising prices hit consumer spending, adding to the case for policy to remain on hold. However, recent strong PMI survey data will bolster the arguments of the hawks. Official updates to industrial production, construction output and trade data will also give further guidance on economic growth momentum.
Analysts will meanwhile digest the Fed officials' speeches over the weekend before looking to updated data on inflation and retail sales next week to confirm signs of building inflationary pressures and the resilience of the consumer.
Download the full report for more details and full diary of key economic releases.
Bernard Aw, Principal Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +65 6922 4226
Bernard.Aw@ihsmarkit.com
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