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PUBLICATION
May 18, 2022
Australia dividends through the macroeconomy lens
• ASX200 companies are expected to declare US$65.2 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2022, staying above the pre-pandemic level of US$56.6 billion in FY 2019.
• The prolonged commodity and energy boom and fewer pandemic-related restrictions are the major factors in sustaining the dividend level.
• Mining, energy, agricultural business, and investment banks are among the biggest winners from the supply chain disruption.
The world entered 2022 with a bumpy start. While the fast-evolving virus variants continue to trigger waves of infections around the globe, the world's economy is seeing reduced steam, as many countries battle the inflation pressingly by tightening monetary policy. On the geopolitical front, the conflict between the two important global commodities and energy suppliers—Russia and Ukraine—drags on, triggering more disruptions on an already troubled supply chain. All these events, as a consequence, create uncertainty for economy recovery path ahead as well as fear for stagflation. Although Australia might be remote to the center of the geopolitical events, the country is still expected to feel the full impacts through the interconnected global trading system as a key exporter of commodity and energy products in Asia Pacific. IHS Markit recently upgraded the 2022 GDP outlook for Australia from 2.8% previously to 3.5%, primarily owing to the near-term strong demand for Australia's exports of energy products, cereals, and other agricultural goods. At the same time, the growth is expected to be tempered by the inflationary pressure and risk of swifter monetary policy tightening that undercuts the consumer spending. Against this backdrop, this report analyses how the economic and geopolitical events and their impacts will trickle down to corporates and in turn, their dividends for 2022.
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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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