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Dec 15, 2022
Bargain shoppers accelerate US retail inventory shift
Discount retailers in the US are expanding their distribution
networks under the strain of inventory that is shifting from
higher-end stores to bargain outlets. That shift will eventually
free up scarce warehousing space and improve supply chain fluidity,
but the process could last well into 2023, retailers say.
US inventory and sales data released by the US Census Bureau
Thursday shows goods are moving faster through supply chains and
stores, but that overall stockpiles are still stuck at elevated
levels.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet — a discount retailer with nearly 470
stores in the US — plans to expand its distribution facility in
York, Pennsylvania, and open a fourth distribution center in the
Midwest in the first half of 2023 to meet continued high consumer
demand for lower prices amid high inflation.
"We have agreed to purchase land in Princeton, Illinois," for a new
distribution hub, John Swygert, Ollie's president and CEO, said
during an earnings call last week. Combined with the expansion in
Pennsylvania, "our distribution center network will be able to
support over 700 stores," he said.
That's a sign of how much business Ollie's believes it stands to
gain as inflation-battered consumers search for bargains. Although
the rate of inflation is slowing, it is still far above the 2
percent target set by the US Federal Reserve. The October consumer
price index was up 7.7 percent year over year.
Squeeze the inventory balloon at one end of the market, and goods
rush to the other end, driving greater growth in stores,
warehouses, and distribution facilities among discounters.
The expanding distribution footprint in the bargain retail sector
is the latest consequence of the inventory buildup that began early
this year as shippers shifted large amounts of imports to the first
half, hoping to avoid the supply chain disruption and stockouts
they suffered in 2021.
Inventories rise, but move faster
The inventory and sales data released by the Census Bureau Thursday
showed retailers are struggling to reduce inventories, as measured
by dollar value. Total business inventories, unadjusted for
seasonality, rose 1.7 percent in October from September, and were
up 16.4 percent from October 2021.
There were some significant changes in specific retail sectors that
indicate goods are moving off shelves at a faster pace. The
inventory-to-sales ratio at general merchandise stores stayed
between 1.56 and 1.58 from May through August, then dropped to 1.49
in September and 1.45 in October.
Furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance stores had
a ratio of 1.58 in October, compared with 1.71 in July and 1.65 in
February 2019. Those stores hit a low ratio of 1.25 in January 2021
and were only back to 1.33 in September 2021. The inventory
acceleration in 2022 is clear in the Census Bureau data.
A lower inventory-to-sales ratio means goods are moving more
rapidly, creating, in theory, greater need for replenishment. The
overall US retail inventory-to-sales ratio dropped from 1.25 in
September to 1.22 in October, exactly where it was in July 2020 in
the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 recession.
Inventories remain far above year-ago levels, however, which is why
retailers need more warehousing and distribution space and time to
clear their shelves. "We see inventory returning to normalized
levels by the end of the spring/summer 2023 season," Jerome
Griffith, CEO of Land's End, said earlier this month.
Ollie's increased its inventory 11 percent year over year in the
third quarter to $524 million, thanks in part to an increased
number of stores, the timing of deliveries, and higher supply chain
costs. Pressure on transportation costs "continues to ease,"
Swygert told investment analysts.
Ollie's is seeing "good activity" in flooring, automotive, lawn and
garden, domestics, and housewares, Swygert said. "We think we're
going to continue to see momentum," he said. "With the overall
inventory challenges that people are facing, a lot of goods are
sitting in warehouses."
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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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