Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in March following a 0.7% decline in February that was revised lower from a previously reported 0.5% decline. The increase in March reflected a robust increase in domestic final sales (mainly consumer spending) that was nearly offset by a decline in nonfarm inventory-building. The recent pattern of monthly GDP lays bare the nature of the strength in first-quarter GDP: there was a one-off surge in production in January. The level of GDP in March was 0.8% below the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 2.1% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases that average 0.3% per month from April through June.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 03 May 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence