Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September; growth for August was revised 0.4 percentage point lower to a 0.1% decline. The increase in September was led by net exports, followed up by smaller increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment. Within domestic final sales, personal consumption expenditures rose, while nonresidential fixed investment declined. The level of monthly GDP in September was 0.7% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 2.0% (annualized) GDP growth in the fourth quarter are increases averaging 0.2% per month from October through December.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 28 October 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence