Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.2% in April 2019

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in April following a flat reading in March that was revised lower from a previously reported 0.1% increase. The increase in April was more than accounted for by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment; domestic final sales and net exports both declined, with nonresidential fixed investment leading the decline in domestic final sales. The level of GDP in April was roughly equal to the first-quarter average. Implicit in our forecast of 1.5% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases that average about 0.3% per month over May and June.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 30 May 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence