Monthly GDP Index Fell 0.5% in February 2019

Monthly GDP declined 0.5% in February following a 0.8% increase in January that was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The February decline was less of a decline than we had previously anticipated, largely reflecting less of a slowing in inventory-building than we had previously assumed. Still, the decline in monthly GDP in February was more than accounted for by inventory investment, with domestic final sales little changed and net exports rising somewhat on the month. Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 3.0% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our estimate of 2.8% GDP growth in the first quarter is a 0.1% increase of monthly GDP in March.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 18 April 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence