Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in May following a 0.6% increase in April that was revised higher by 0.4 percentage point. The increase in May reflected positive contributions from consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and the portion of GDP not covered by the monthly source data and negative contributions from net exports and inventory investment. Averaged over April and May, monthly GDP was 1.6% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 1.9% GDP growth in the second quarter is a 0.1% (not annualized) increase in June.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 26 June 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence