Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October following a robust, 0.6% increase in September that was revised higher by 0.3 percentage point. The October increase was fully accounted for by net exports; a moderate increase in domestic final sales in October was essentially offset by a small decline in nonfarm inventory investment. The level of GDP in October was 2.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 1.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a small decline in GDP in November followed by resumed growth in December.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 27 November 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence