Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.3% in June 2019

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June following a 0.1% decrease in May that was revised lower by 0.3 percentage point. The increase in June was fully accounted for by domestic final sales, with about half of the increase in personal consumption expenditures, a quarter of the increase in nonresidential fixed investment, and the balance mainly in the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. The level of GDP in June was 0.7% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the third quarter are increases in monthly GDP during the third quarter averaging 0.2% per month.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 29 July 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence