Monthly GDP Index declines 0.2% in June 2018

Monthly GDP declined 0.2% in June following large increases over the prior two months. The decline in June reflected declines in net exports and inventory investment that were partially offset by a solid increase in domestic final sales. The latter was mainly accounted for by growth of PCE and nonresidential fixed investment. The level of GDP in June was roughly equal to the second-quarter average. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.9% GDP growth in the third quarter are increases in monthly GDP that average 0.3% per month from July through September.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 27 July 2018 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence