Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in April, following a 2.6% increase in March. The increase in April reflected positive contributions from net exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data, which were nearly offset by negative contributions from inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures. The level of monthly GDP in April was only 0.2% below the February 2020 level (the pre-pandemic peak). We estimate GDP surpassed the pre-pandemic peak in May 2021.

Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 01 June 2021 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence