Monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in February following a 0.3% increase in January. The latter was revised up from the prior estimate of no change (0.0%). The small decline in February was more than accounted for by a decline in personal consumption expenditures.

This and other declines were partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment and an increase in the portion of monthly GDP not covered by monthly source data. The level of GDP averaged over January and February was 0.1% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 0.2% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter is a 0.1% (not annualized) increase in monthly GDP in March.

Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 03 April 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.