Monthly US GDP was flat (0.0%) in January following a similar reading in December. Underlying the flat reading in January were strong cross-currents, including a large increase in domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly US GDP in January was 0.7% below the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 1.0% annualized growth of US GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly US GDP over February and March averaging 0.4% (not annualized) per month.

Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 04 March 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.