Monthly GDP declined 0.8% in November following a 0.6% increase in October that was revised lower by 0.1 percentage point. The decline in November was the first so far in the recovery and reflected declines in personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, net exports, and nonfarm inventory investment. There were partially offsetting increases in residential investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.0% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a further, 0.4% decline (not annualized) in December.

IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 05 January 2021 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence