Monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November, reversing about one-half of a 1.6% increase in October. The October increase was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The November decline was mainly accounted for by a sharp widening of the goods deficit. There was also a decline in nonfarm inventory investment. Together, these sources of drag more than offset a modest gain in domestic final sales. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 7.1% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 6.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is an assumed 0.1% increase in monthly GDP in December.

IHS Markit's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 03 January 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence