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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY Apr 19, 2024

Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 22 April 2024

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Jingyi Pan
Contributor Image
Chris Williamson

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

Flash PMI, US Q1 GDP, core PCE data and BoJ meeting in focus

The earliest insights into economic conditions across major developed economies in April will be tracked with flash PMI releases on Tuesday, while key official data updates in the coming week include US first quarter GDP and core PCE data. The Bank of Japan meanwhile convenes at the end of the week amidst volatility surrounding the Japanese yen. The earnings season will also be in full swing.

Flash PMI data for the US will be closely watched in the coming week, especially on prices after March data warned ahead of the stubborn inflation trend for CPI. While core PCE figures will also be due for a check of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, any hints of higher than anticipated inflation may add to market jitters over Fed policy. Additionally, Q1 GDP, personal income and spending data will be official releases, helping to add colour on economic conditions. Markets will also be eyeing corporate earnings results, and especially forward guidance, for insights as to how companies are coping in the higher rates environment.

While the Fed may be confronted by stubborn inflation, the eurozone saw inflation cool in March. Any extension of the easing inflation trend will be watched with the upcoming HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI to see if the European Central Bank may become the first of the major central banks to cut rates this year. The UK flash PMI will also be eyed for further signs of recession having ended, but more importantly for inflation cooling to open the door for rate cuts.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan remains on track to lift rates, though Friday's BoJ meeting is widely seen as too early to see a hike. Dovish comments from BoJ officials at the March meeting, where the negative interest rate regime concluded, alongside hawkish tones in the US, have pushed the yen down 9% against the US dollar far this year to its lowest since 1990. This was despite indications of stronger growth in Japan, as seen via the March au Jibun Bank Japan PMI.

Several inflation updates will also be anticipated across APAC economies including for Australia, where the flash PMI will also help assess whether softer price pressures might lead to a rate cut pivot by the Reserve Bank. The HSBC Flash India PMI will meanwhile offer insights into this strong-performing economy.


© 2024, S&P Global. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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