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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
Feb 24, 2023
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 27 February 2023
The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Global manufacturing and services PMI data will be released in the coming week, following the updates from the February flash figures. A series of GDP figures will also be due from Canada, Switzerland, Australia and India. Meanwhile inflation numbers from the eurozone, Germany and Indonesia will be closely watched amid ongoing scrutiny of the inflation trend. Finally, comments from various central bankers through the week, including Fed speakers, will be important to follow for further insights into likely interest rate trajectories.
Concerns over a persistent tightening of monetary conditions have been fuelled by the latest flash PMI data surprises from major developed economies. The surveys allayed some recession fears but also fanned worries of further rate hikes, especially in the UK and US, but also in the eurozone. The FX market embodied the surprise with the GBP/USD pair trading higher post the release of better-than-expected S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI figures as investors positioned for greater possibilities of Bank of England (BoE) hikes. This was even as UK PMI price indices indicated receding inflation, though the important aspect of which was that inflation remained elevated and sticky enough to keep the BoE acting. Whether the improving growth and sticky inflation trends extends globally will be watched with the complete set of February PMI data due in the coming week.
Meanwhile in APAC, a key issue had been the demand dearth situation which was again presented in the February flash PMI figures from Australia and Japan. The early figures also suggested limited impact from the easing of restrictions in mainland China in February with business confidence in Australia having declined once again. It will be of interest to see how the wider APAC region fares amid the mixed signals from the flash PMI releases thus far, though the PMI data from mainland China will likely take centre stage.
Finally, the series of official inflation releases and GDP figures will be important economic data to track, although we do have an early sense of the expected trend from the PMI indications (see box).
© 2023, S&P Global. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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