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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
Oct 05, 2023
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 October 2023
The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Fed minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released in the coming week alongside an assessment of US inflation conditions with CPI data. Inflation readings will also be due from mainland China for an update of both factory gate and consumer price developments. Amid concerns over the growth trajectory in the UK and Eurozone, August GDP and industrial production numbers will be updated for the respective economies. Additionally, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index, tallied from survey respondents collectively managing more than USD $3500 billion of assets, will provide the latest US equity market signals.
The US equity market sell-off has been led by concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates, and little reprieve may be expected from the Fed minutes due Wednesday, where clues on what may lead the Fed to start lowering rates will be sought. This is while we await September's CPI reading from the US, which is expected to confirm that inflation will have remained somewhat sticky at the end of the third quarter, reinforcing the Fed's stance to hold rates for longer.
Outside of the US, UK August GDP data, including sector output updates for manufacture, services and construction, will be closely watched after GDP fell 0.5% in July and PMI figures point to sustained economic weakness in August and September. UK recruitment industry survey will meanwhile provide a timely update on changing labour market trends. In the eurozone, the major release is industrial production, for which the PMI data are indicating further weakness.
Finally in APAC, advance GDP from Singapore will be watched for early indications of Q3 growth performance. That said, the highlight will no doubt be mainland China's inflation and trade data after the Chinese economy return from the Golden Week holidays.
Also watch out for the S&P Global Investment Manager Index, which offers an update on money managers' views towards the US equity market. September's survey revealed a risk averse mood and that equity valuations were the top concern at the end of the third quarter, and it will be of interest whether that remains so following the paring of gains across major equity indices. Allocation preferences among sectors and markets will also be refreshed this month. The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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